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Cocoa prices just took a hit—down 0.62% in NY and 1.47% in London after Trump announced cutting tariffs on non-US commodities. But here's the catch: Brazilian cocoa still faces a 40% tariff.
Meanwhile, supply is tightening. Ivory Coast cocoa shipments dropped 5.7% YoY through mid-November, and Nigeria's projected output is falling 11% next season. ICE inventories hit a 7.75-month low at 1.77M bags.
Demand side? Rough. Asia's Q3 cocoa grindings fell 17% YoY (9-year low), Europe down 4.8% (10-year low). Hershey saw disappointing chocolate sales this Halloween. North American chocolate candy volume tanked over 21% in Q3.
The silver lining: ICCO expects a 142,000 MT surplus in 2024/25 after a brutal 494,000 MT deficit last year—global production up 7.8% YoY to 4.84 MMT. Supply bounce vs. weak demand = squeeze play.