Natural gas caught a bid Wednesday after EIA storage draw came in hotter than expected (-11 bcf vs -9 bcf consensus). US gas production sitting at record levels though—Lower-48 dry output hit 113.1 bcf/day (+8.3% YoY), and EIA upped 2025 production forecast by +1% to 107.67 bcf/day. Cold weather forecasts for early December are helping prices, but the supply overhang is real. Gas rigs at 130 (2.25-year high), inventories still +4.2% above 5-year average. Europe's storage only 78% full vs 88% seasonal norm—showing divergent supply dynamics. LNG exports running 18.4 bcf/day, up 3.5% week-on-week. The tension: production records vs seasonal heating demand. Could be range-bound until we see sustained cold or supply cuts.