Dollar Breaks 1.5-Week High as Yen Slides on BOJ Uncertainty

USD Index climbed +0.39% today, riding on yen weakness after Japanese officials signaled no rate hikes before March. The yen hit a 9.75-month low, tanked by dovish BOJ rhetoric combined with plans for a 20 trillion yen ($129B) stimulus package—double last year’s effort.

US trade data sweetened the dollar’s move: August deficit came in at -$59.6B, beating expectations and shrinking from July’s -$78.2B. Fed rate-cut odds for December dropped to 47%, down from 70% earlier this month.

EUR/USD slipped -0.23% to 1-week lows, though euro losses stayed contained—Trump-Russia peace talks on Ukraine and ECB rate-hike pause provided some cushion. USD/JPY jumped +0.68%.

Gold and silver rallied hard today (+1.55% and +3.03% respectively), bouncing back from recent weakness. BOJ dovishness boosted safe-haven demand, and China’s PBOC just added gold for the 12th straight month (now holding 74.09M troy ounces). Global central banks purchased 220 MT in Q3—up 28% from Q2.

Mortgage apps fell -5.2% week-over-week; 30-year fixed rates rose to 6.37%. The crypto/macro crosscurrents are messy—precious metals caught between dollar strength and geopolitical hedging demand.