Hang Seng Knocking on 26K Door: What's Driving the Rally?

The Hang Seng just wrapped up its third consecutive win, pocketing 710+ points (2.8%) in the process. Currently sitting pretty at 25,982, traders are eyeing that 26,000 ceiling—and it looks like they might just break through.

What’s fueling the run?

Wall Street handed the carry torch to Asia, with major indices closing firmly in the green. The Dow climbed 0.67%, NASDAQ surged 0.82%, and S&P 500 inched up 0.69%. The vibe? Traders finally shook off valuation jitters that had been hammering tech stocks for weeks.

The real kicker: rate cut expectations are skyrocketing. CME’s FedWatch Tool now shows an 82.9% probability the Fed drops another quarter-point next month—compared to just 30.1% a week ago. That’s a massive shift in sentiment.

Economic backdrop

U.S. durable goods orders beat expectations in September, while jobless claims unexpectedly dipped. Not exactly fireworks, but solid enough to keep the bid in risk assets.

Oil wild card

Crude caught a bid too (+1.05% to $58.56), thanks to skepticism around the new U.S. peace proposal for Ukraine. Geopolitical uncertainty = commodity support.

The setup for Thursday: Asian markets are running with the positive momentum. If Hang Seng can hold above 25,980, that 26,000 breakthrough isn’t just possible—it’s looking increasingly likely.