Oil prices took a hit today as the dollar strengthened to a 1.5-week high, with WTI crude down 2.42% and gasoline sliding 3.06% to touch a 1.5-week low. The bigger story: reports suggest Trump's team is quietly negotiating a Ukraine peace deal with Russia, which is weighing on energy markets.

Here's the tension—on one hand, Russia's crude exports just hit a 3-year low at 1.7M bpd after Ukraine's relentless refinery strikes knocked out 13-20% of Russian refining capacity. On the flip side, OPEC flipped its forecast from a 400K bpd deficit to a 500K bpd surplus, and the IEA is now warning of a record 4M bpd global glut in 2026.

The weekly EIA report was mixed: crude inventories fell 3.43M barrels (better than expected), but gasoline and distillate stockpiles both surprised higher. US production ticked down slightly to 13.834M bpd after hitting a record 13.862M bpd last week.

Bottom line: geopolitical risk (Russia sanctions, Iran tensions, potential Venezuela fallout) is supporting prices, but the emerging global oil surplus is the real bearish headwind. OPEC+ is pumping more (up 137K bpd in December) despite surplus signals—classic clash between supply fundamentals and geopolitical backstops.