Sugar market getting hammered by surplus outlook. NY March contract down 0.47% today, but London white sugar bounced back into green territory (+0.50%) as short covering kicked in.

The damage? ISO just dropped a bomb—forecasting a 1.625 MMT sugar surplus in 2025-26, a total 180° flip from their August prediction of a 231K deficit. Global production heading to 181.8 MMT (+3.2% YoY), with India, Thailand, and Pakistan ramping up output.

What's keeping prices from totally cratering: India's food ministry teasing plans to hike ethanol prices, which could redirect sugarcane toward fuel blend instead of sugar. Plus, India's cutting export quota to 1.5 MMT (down from 2 MMT), which tightened things just enough to pull London sugar off the mat.

But here's the real problem—Brazil's crushing records. Conab upped 2025-26 production forecast to 45 MMT, with Center-South output up 16.4% YoY in late October. India's also poised for a massive rebound (31 MMT forecast, +18.8% YoY) thanks to bumper monsoon rains. Thailand rounding out the trio with 5% growth to 10.5 MMT.

Bottom line: Even with some short-term supply tightening from India, the structural picture is bearish. Global stocks projected to hit 41.188 MMT (+7.5% YoY). This looks like a buyer's market forming.