#美SEC推动加密创新监管 💥 December 1st market recap: a breather opportunity after the big dump?

Last night's big dump must have stunned quite a few people, right? The good news is that the market has taken a breather today. The total market cap of cryptocurrencies is now stable at around $2.95 trillion, although the weekly fall is still 4.9%. However, mainstream coins have collectively rebounded by 5-8%. In the past day, the liquidation amount exceeded $500 million, resulting in heavy losses for the bulls.

Check the current price (data as of 10:30 AM UTC):
$BTC is hovering around $86,650, with a weekly fall of 5.1%
$ETH reported $2,838, a pullback of 5.7%
$XRP held at $2.04, but fell 7%
SOL, DOGE, and BNB fell by 7%, 8%, and 6% respectively.

Interestingly, Bitcoin's market cap share has risen to 58.7%, indicating that funds are seeking safety, but altcoins are also starting to show some signs of recovery.

**Several Signals on the Macroeconomic Level That Cannot Be Ignored:**

There are rumors from Japan about a possible interest rate hike, which is not good news for global risk assets. On the other hand, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has soared to 87%, and the market is playing Tai Chi. The BTC spot ETF performed moderately in November, but BlackRock's IBIT product has already reached a scale of 70 billion USD— the momentum of institutional entry is still there. Regulatory tightening in certain regions is also putting pressure on stablecoins.

**How does the technical aspect look?**

BTC fell below the monthly opening price of 89,000, and is now struggling around 86,600. Looking up, 90,000 is a tough resistance; only by breaking through can we have a chance to hit six figures. Looking down, 80,000 is the lifeline; if it breaks, it may have to find support in the 72-75k range.

On the ETH side, the expectations for the Fusaka upgrade are still fermenting, and there is room for imagination on the technical front. XRP can be considered passing as it manages to hold the psychological threshold of 2.00 dollars.

**News worth paying attention to:**

• The Brazilian company Méliuz has included BTC in its treasury reserves.
• Texas bought $5 million of BTC ETF
• Japan has approved a policy of a unified 20% tax rate on cryptocurrency gains.
• In December, there will be over $1.8 billion worth of tokens unlocked to cause a big dump.
• A certain South Korean trading platform has resumed operations after being hacked.

**How is the market sentiment?**

The Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 20, which is already in the "extreme fear" range. The Altcoin Season Index is at 35, indicating that it is still not their home ground.

**Trading Idea Sharing:**

From a short-term perspective of 1-7 days, ETH, SOL, ADA, and SUI have the potential for a technical rebound - but stop-losses must be in place! If BTC falls below 80k, this judgment becomes invalid.

Looking towards mid-December, if the Federal Reserve really cuts interest rates, along with a smooth upgrade of Fusaka, there may be a sequel to the bull market in Q4. In an optimistic scenario, BTC may have the opportunity to reach the range of $175,000-250,000 in early 2026.

However, be wary of two risks: Japan's interest rate hike and changes in regional regulatory policies. The volatility is off the charts right now, so it's recommended to control individual positions to 1-2%, and avoid going all in.