Daily Analysis of #BTC

1️⃣ Structure interpretation: Pay attention to the trend around 86000. If 86000 breaks, I personally suggest following last week's viewpoint and continuing to look towards the lower vicinity. For such trends, we should be clear about what is following the trend and what is against the trend. The current sentiment is like this: if the key support is lost, the bearish sentiment will intensify.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamic Exchange Dynamics (Market "Sentiment" Thermometer): High-leverage longs face "bloody" liquidations. In the past 4 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $435 million, with long liquidations amounting to $424 million, accounting for over 97%. This clearly indicates that the main driving force behind this decline comes from the forced liquidations of leveraged longs, creating a vicious cycle of "price drop → long liquidations → forced selling → further price suppression." Regulatory Dynamics (Policy "Trends"): The regulatory environment remains severe. The People's Bank of China and other departments have recently publicly defined stablecoins for the first time, clearly stating that stablecoins are a form of virtual currency, with risks of being used for illegal activities, and continue to adhere to prohibitive policies on virtual currencies. This brings ongoing policy pressure to the market.
3️⃣ Be cautious when chasing long positions during the day. Absolutely do not try to catch the bottom. The short positions set up last week were stopped out last Sunday night, and I re-entered short positions at 8 AM this morning. The decline is still quite smooth, although I missed out on a bit of profit, the overall strategy and direction are still on point. As mentioned last Sunday night, if 90000 breaks, we will look directly at 87000, and now that we have reached 87000, we need to observe patiently and try not to go long. During the day, we will first look at the repair market after the rapid decline. In the evening live broadcast, we will study how to approach the upcoming market. If the market shows weakness around 90000, we can consider entering the first position, with the best entry point around 91500.
4️⃣ Risk Warning Emotional Selling Spread Risk: Market panic is contagious. In extreme panic, investors are prone to make irrational decisions, leading to panic selling, which in turn triggers an unexpected drop in prices, even resulting in a "flash crash." High Leverage Liquidation Risk: Market volatility remains high, with over $400 million in leverage being liquidated in a short period. If prices experience severe one-sided fluctuations again, the remaining leveraged positions may continue to be liquidated, creating a stampede effect and amplifying short-term volatility. Regulatory Policy Risk: Statements from the People's Bank of China and other departments remind investors that virtual currency trading still faces a strict regulatory environment in the country, and such news will continue to affect market sentiment.