14：00

I didn't expect to lose so much right now, and this also confirms that my idea of a major cycle conversion over the weekend these past two days was wrong. Instead of going up, it went down. I admit this, but fortunately, I didn't open positions frequently, adhered to strict stop-loss rules, and maintained a good habit of protecting my capital with stop-losses.
Today I was thinking about something because a friend sent me a message. He said I should have shorted last night, but previously he said to go long at 2990, with a stop loss at 2770 and take profit at 3150. The stop loss isn't large, but it always feels like a hindsight move. When we see a certain position, does it mean it will definitely reach another position when going long or short? If after several profitable trades it keeps fluctuating without going up or down, should we exit? This involves the issues of long and short-term trading and the level of trading.
Actually, there is no right or wrong; we cannot control this market. The only thing we can control is our own position risk. We should make a trade within reasonable risk, take a sip of soup from this market, and grab a piece of meat from the dog's mouth.
In the past two days during the weekend, I read a book, the third time, "The Distant Savior". The realm of Ding Yuanying requires a strong foundation of knowledge and rich experiential understanding. Even having one-thousandth of his insights would be enough for us to survive. The greatest impression he left on me is not these aspects, but the tightness of his logical thinking and the objectivity of his logic regarding things. Applied to the trading market, it means that it will not be swayed by human willpower. Whether it's technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or news analysis, none of them will be swayed by human willpower. There are risks in everything, and we need to take them into account. Just like Ouyang Xue said, she only knows how to run a restaurant, and the money she invests in Z is money she can afford to lose. In this book, as well as in the film and television drama, her role is solely defined by her clear self-positioning. Although she ultimately reaps some fruits, the process also involves enduring a lot of trials and possessing strong psychological resilience. Therefore, nothing will be smooth sailing.
The personal view on the current market is as follows: It is currently a clearly bearish structure, with support around 2770-2720. It's not possible to go long here. The large-scale four-hour chart has formed a strong bearish candle, and it cannot be ruled out that it may test the 2640 level again. I don't know if anyone has noticed that many times, entering from the left side yields more profit and smaller stop losses. Currently, it’s also difficult to devise a strategy for those who are short. Ideally, one would look to enter a long position around 2640 during the second test with a small stop loss and a large profit potential. However, the current direction is bearish, which theoretically should suggest a short position on rebounds, but the price has dropped to a somewhat awkward position. One can pay attention to the resistance around 2885 to short with stop losses set to the current 15-minute highs. Bitcoin also has demand at 83000, and all the levels have been predicted in advance. Technical analysis might not always be accurate, so it's important to have a flexible view of this market and wait for signals. Sometimes we must calmly accept stop losses, or else we may make bigger mistakes.
This is just a personal opinion for reference.
Finally, I would like to share some good insights on trading with everyone.