#特朗普加密货币政策新方向 Global assets collectively Plummet, who is the real culprit?

In this round of plummet, many people are looking at certain policy directions for reasons, but upon careful consideration—can the logical chain really be directly connected between the collapse of the US stock market and the bloodbath in the crypto space?

What really needs to be watched is probably Japan on the other side of the Pacific.

Their 2-year government bond yield has already surged to 1%. What does this mean? The last time we saw this number was before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Japan, in the era of zero interest rates, is quietly turning around.

Why is this matter so impactful? Because the yen has long been the world's largest "borrowing tool." Over the past decade, countless institutions have borrowed yen at low interest rates from Japan, then turned around to buy U.S. Treasuries, crash U.S. stocks, and invest in crypto assets, profiting from the interest rate differential and exchange rate stability. Who wouldn't love to engage in this trade with money that costs almost nothing to obtain, chasing high-yield targets?

But now the rules of the game have changed.

The short-end interest rate returning to 1% means that the cost of borrowing is starting to rise. The arbitrage space has been compressed, and there may even be an inverted loss. Institutions reacted quickly: cutting positions, reducing leverage, and withdrawing funds. The yen began to flow back to its homeland, and the demand for risk assets such as U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and BTC naturally collapsed. Meanwhile, the interest rate differential between the U.S. dollar and the yen narrowed, exchange rate fluctuations intensified, and there was even less reason for funds to stay overseas and take risks.

This is not a trivial matter; it is a reshuffling of the global liquidity structure.

Especially those high-leverage carry trades are extremely sensitive to changes in the yen interest rate. When the interest rate moves, leverage has to be unwound, and unwinding leverage means selling assets. Once the selling frenzy starts, where is there any safe haven in the market?

Ultimately, players who used to rely on low-cost arbitrage through yen borrowing are now facing rising costs and shrinking profits, making an early exit the rational choice.

This is just an observation from one angle, but from the perspective of liquidity transmission paths, this clue may be closer to the truth.