Are there still analysts who dare to predict Bitcoin will reach 150,000 or 200,000 by the end of the year? A little calculation shows it's not reliable.

To rise to 200,000, the daily average increase of BTC must be maintained at 6%. Even in a crazy bull market, we have never seen such a continuous rise, let alone the fact that market confidence and liquidity have already fallen to a year-to-date low.

Every time the bull-bear transition follows a similar script: certain institutions shout high points with their eyes closed, retail investors miss the escape window at the peak, and after being trapped, they comfort themselves with "it's just a correction, there will be new highs later." It’s only when it drops below 80,000 and 70,000 that they suddenly realize the bear market has arrived, and by the time they cut their losses, the market value has already halved.

At the end of the last bull market, these people were shouting 100,000 and 150,000. Remember a truth: they talk about 200,000, but they actually run away faster than anyone else.

The so-called "research report predictions" are often just a way to build confidence for retail investors to take over. When the market is calm, one should trust data and cyclical rules, rather than those seemingly professional calls.