This time in December is a bit interesting.

Check the latest "Federal Reserve Watch" data from CME - the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has jumped to 87.4%, while maintaining the status quo? There is only a 12.6% chance left. Powell probably can't escape this time.

But what's more interesting is the market's bets for next year: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is close to 70%, and more than 20% of people are betting on a direct cut of 50 basis points. The likelihood of holding steady? Less than 10%.

The issue of interest rate cuts is no longer a question of "whether" it will happen, but rather "how much" and "for how long" it will be.

The historical pattern is clear - every time a round of easing begins, liquidity floods into the market, and risk assets are often the first to pick up on it. Will the crypto market catch this wave of liquidity? The recent actions of those ETH whales may have already provided the answer.

Of course, the rhythm may be similar, but the script will not be an exact copy. Where is the difference this time? How much of the interest rate cut expectation has already been priced in? How much unexpected space is there left?

Should we布局 in advance or wait for the shoe to drop? What do you think of this operational window?