Will Cardano become the next dark horse? On-chain data tells you the truth.

ADA has been a hot topic lately. The current price is $0.4, but the predictions from analysts vary widely—some see it reaching $2.05 by the end of the year, while others believe it will fall to $0.85. Who is really bullshitting?

The bullish factors are piling up a bit aggressively.

This year, Cardano has indeed taken a lot of actions:

• The Plomin hard fork in Q1 achieved complete decentralized governance.
• Grayscale Fund allocated 1/5 of the configuration quota
• The collaboration between EMURGO and Ctrl Wallet has enabled ADA to connect with over 2300 blockchains.
• Industry rumors suggest that the SEC may approve a spot ADA ETF.

Institutional interest is rising, this is true.

But the reality is very heart-wrenching

From the high point of 1.32 dollars last December, ADA has formed a “falling wedge”. The key support level is 0.27-0.30 dollars. If it cannot break this line, a long-term rebound will be out of the question.

Short term outlook? Macroeconomic factors are dragging down (BTC and XRP are also falling), the Russia-Ukraine conflict is escalating, and market risk aversion is strong.

Three Price Scenarios

2026 Target: If it can hold at $1.10 by the end of the year, it may surge to $2.20 in the first half of the year.

Long-term view? Assuming historical compound growth, it may reach $10.25 by 2030. However, this requires a series of perfect conditions.

Key Highlights

• ETF approval is a watershed moment, setting the tone.
• Whether it can hold the 0.30 dollar support is crucial.
• Macroeconomic factors (war, interest rates) can sometimes have a greater impact than the project itself.

Is it time to enter now? It depends on your risk tolerance. There's pressure in the short term, but the long-term logic still holds.