#ETH巨鲸增持 and $BTC are standing at the crossroads at the end of the year. The market's total market capitalization remains at $3.09 trillion, but under the fluctuating pattern, investors' mentality is undergoing a subtle change.

**The game of policymaking is intensifying**. The dovish remarks from the New York Fed chairman have increased the expectation of a rate cut in December to 82.8%. While the dollar weakens, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $70.5 million, and Ethereum ETFs attracted $312 million in funds. However, the fear and greed index stands at only 27, indicating that market sentiment remains cautious. $ETH has seen a slight decline of 0.78% over the past week, while mainstream assets like $BTC have dropped over 2%, with most of the top 200 projects showing green. Observers dominate the market, with core concerns being: there are still divisions within the Fed, and the decision on December 10th remains uncertain.

**Technical breakthroughs may offer more imaginative possibilities**. Ethereum plans to launch the Fusaka upgrade on December 3rd, with the core highlight being the application of PeerDAS technology—this means Layer 2 network fees are expected to drop by 40% to 60%, while dynamic scaling capabilities may push the network's processing capacity towards 100,000 transactions per second. Some institutions have already positioned themselves in advance, with Bitmine continuously increasing its ETH holdings, and the influx of ETF funds also shows a bet on the explosion of the ecosystem post-upgrade. Although $SOL is under short-term pressure due to the Upbit security incident, Ethereum's ambition for this expansion still injects narrative momentum into the market.

**The capital flow reveals contradictory signals**. The market capitalization of stablecoins increased by 1.08% to $306.1 billion, indicating that significant funds have not been withdrawn from the market on a large scale, but rather are adjusting positions while observing. $SOL is oscillating between $85,000 and $95,000, while $BTC is locked within a range of $2,800 to $3,300, with noticeable pressure above. Conservative funds are choosing to build positions in batches during panic periods, while aggressive investors are looking for short-term opportunities amidst volatility. Notably, renowned investor Cathie Wood's fund is also increasing its stake in cryptocurrency-related stocks, which may suggest that institutions remain optimistic about the medium to long-term trend.

How will the market interpret a potential shift in macro policy meeting substantial breakthroughs in public chain technology? Can the expectations for interest rate cuts be realized? Will the Ethereum upgrade become a catalyst to break the oscillation? The answers to these questions may lie in the price movements of the coming weeks.