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The trend of Bitcoin in 2025 is very similar to that in 2022, with a correlation of 98%.
#比特币行情观察
According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin (BTC) in 2025 is highly similar to the bear market bottom trend of 2022, with a correlation close to 100%. Network economist Timothy Peterson pointed out that this year’s BTC performance is remarkably similar to that of 2022, with a daily correlation of 80% and a monthly correlation reaching 98%.
November is one of the worst months for BTC price performance, Peterson stated, with this month's performance being in the bottom 10% since 2015. Historical data shows that November's "red" performance usually leads to a similar decline in December.
Nevertheless, changes in macro sentiment may bring the classic "Christmas rally" before the end of the year. Data shows that since November 2024, stock funds have attracted $900 billion in new capital, while other asset classes have only attracted $100 billion. Bitcoin ETF saw inflows of $220 billion by the end of Thanksgiving week, while Ether ETF saw inflows of $31.2 billion, indicating that institutional selling may have ended.