Fren watching the Options Delivery today, be aware, the market is experiencing a wave of large-scale expirations.

**The situation on the BTC side:**
143,000 contracts expired, with a nominal value directly reaching $13 billion. The put-call ratio is 0.51, and the maximum pain point is stuck at $98,000 — this position is quite subtle, after all, BTC has just crawled out of the sharp drop at the beginning of the month and has finally managed to stabilize above the $90,000 mark.

**ETH is even more exaggerated:**
572,000 contracts are set to expire, with a notional value of $1.71 billion. The put-call ratio is 0.48, with a maximum pain point of $3,400. However, the issue is that ETH has been in a three-month downtrend recently, and it is still struggling around $3,000, which is quite a distance from the pain point.

**What does volatility data reveal?**
The implied volatility (IV) of BTC for major expiration dates has soared to around 45%, while ETH is approaching 70%. Both of these numbers are at relatively high levels this year, which means the market is currently very anxious, and uncertainty is off the charts.

**Market sentiment is warming up a bit:**
Although the performance in the fourth quarter has been disappointing, the sentiment has indeed improved compared to last week. However, the divergence remains significant—some are bottom-fishing, while others are cutting losses, each playing their own game.

**A reminder in one sentence:**
The macro environment is not yet stable, playing with leverage at this time is like gambling with your life. Don't be impulsive, wait and observe first.