#数字货币市场回升 Recently, the market has pulled back over 30%, and many people are starting to shout that the "bull run is over." Don't panic just yet—if you compare the market trends of 2017, 2021, and this cycle in 2025, you'll find that the scripts are completely different.

This round is a policy bull run combined with a liquidity bull run, completely different from the previous two times. The one in 2017 was the last frenzy before the regulations took effect, while in 2021, institutions took the opportunity to buy the dip after the ban and then pumped it higher. And 2025? The U.S. first embraced it and then had infighting; currently, it is just normal profit-taking after the honeymoon period of policies ended, with funds switching to safe havens like ( gold during this time indeed looking more appealing ). A 30-35% pullback is a healthy adjustment, and we are not yet at the point of a structural collapse.

Looking back at history, every time certain regions "suddenly loosen up" it signals the entry of large funds—before September 4, 2017, and after the ban in September 2021, both confirmed this pattern. The loosening of personal holding policies in September 2025 plays a similar role. What truly determines the depth of the next bear market is whether the U.S. will fulfill its commitment to purchase "strategic Bitcoin reserves" in 2026, and whether the Federal Reserve can continue its easing. If these two conditions are met, it is highly likely that there will be another drop of 30-50%(, after which the adjustment will end, and a new cycle will restart in 2026-2027.

As for the systemic crash that fell 77% in 2022? The probability is currently less than 15%. That time was triggered by the collapse of lending platforms, leading to a chain reaction; this round is neither retail investors’ air coins bull nor is there large-scale leverage accumulation. The most likely scenario is a pullback of 50-65% similar to 2018/2022, and then the next super cycle will begin as the U.S. Treasury buys BTC with real money. This bull run is not dead yet; it has simply switched from the 'Trump bull' to the 'gold bull' stealing the spotlight.