2026 is shaping up to be a year where trade fragmentation becomes the new normal. We're already seeing signs of it—nations building walls instead of bridges, supply chains getting more localized, and economic blocs forming around shared interests rather than global cooperation.

But here's the twist: while fragmentation gains ground, there's still a strong push to preserve what's left of the liberal trading order. Think of it as a tug-of-war between nationalism and globalism.

For those of us watching crypto and digital assets, this matters more than you'd think. Fragmented trade policies could mean divergent regulatory approaches—what's legal in one jurisdiction might be restricted in another. Cross-border transactions could get messier. Yet, if efforts to maintain open systems succeed, we might see digital currencies playing a bigger role as neutral settlement layers.

The real question isn't whether fragmentation will happen—it's already happening. It's whether the mechanisms designed to keep markets open can adapt fast enough. And in that gap, decentralized finance might just find its moment.