#特朗普加密货币政策新方向 Recently, my DMs have exploded with people asking the same question: has this round ended or not?

To be honest, when I first entered the market in 2017, I didn't believe in the so-called "four-year curse" at all. I thought it was just something that the old hands made up to scare the newcomers.

But this time is different.

BTC has been smashed down from 126,000 to 94,000, altcoins? Directly halved, crushed underfoot, just lying flat. I finally understand:

The thing about cycles is not just talk; it requires real money to be invested.

Do you remember the beginning of the month? Bitcoin was stable at 110,000, and various altcoins were skyrocketing five to ten times in a single day. I've seen that kind of madness before.

The last time this "chaotic dance of demons" occurred was the final carnival of 2021.

At that time, I said it was time to stop, and I was severely criticized.

What about now? The total network contracts have exploded to 19 billion USD. A year's increase can bring you back to square one in just one month.

Surprised? Not surprised. This drop was destined to happen when everyone was having a blast.

Calculate the time - the 18th month after the halving. Historically, every cycle has started to turn at this node.

BTC still has institutional support, but altcoins? No one cares, they are crashing harder than anyone else.

The technical aspect is more obvious: the 200-day and 365-day lines have both been broken. Now all eyes are on the hurdle of 72,000.

The macro environment is not cooperative either. The Federal Reserve lowering interest rates? Dream on. Officials are tougher than ever, and liquidity is still dragged down by the government's pile of nonsense...

Christmas market? This year seems unlikely.

How to go at the end of the year?

My judgment is very straightforward: a repeated grind in the 80,000-90,000 range, if it breaks 80,000 - the bear market will officially begin.

But I'm not anxious.

The ETF can still attract 253 million USD in a day; big money hasn't run away, it's just waiting for the right opportunity.

This market never moves in a straight line. It will rise crazily and then fall, or fall deeply and then rise. The alternation of prosperity and decline is the rule.

We are now at a point where one round is coming to an end, and the starting point of the next round is slowly emerging.

Instead of getting caught up in the bull and bear markets, it's better to focus on three things: keep cash, maintain a steady mindset, and find direction.

Real opportunities never arise in times of hustle and bustle. Instead, they quietly emerge when everyone is numb and has lost hope.

Patience is the scarcest asset at this stage.

$PIPPIN