Tom Lee has changed his tune: the probability of BTC breaking $100,000 by the end of the year is high, the $250K target has been abandoned.

The celebrity Tom Lee, who once predicted $250,000 by the end of the year, recently changed his tune on CNBC. This co-founder of Fundstrat now believes that the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 before the end of 2024 is very high, and even a new high is not a dream.

How to put it, Tom Lee's reasoning is quite interesting: he emphasizes that over 80% of BTC's annual gains are achieved in just a few trading days. According to the data, the top 10 trading days for BTC in 2024 contributed 52% of the annual returns, while the remaining 355 days only saw a 15% increase.

In other words, there are only 35 days left, and as long as there are a few explosive days, breaking 100,000 is completely possible.

A review: BTC dropped to $80,000 in October and November, and has recently started to rebound back to around $90,000. From on-chain data, whales are accumulating at the bottom, and retail FOMO sentiment is also rising.

However, it should be noted that Tom Lee has cut his forecast from $250K to over $100K, which itself indicates that market expectations are adjusting. Those aggressive predictions from before now indeed seem too optimistic.

What do you think? Can it reach a new high by the end of the year, or will it peak at $100K?