Polymarket's latest data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 87%—a significant increase from last week. It seems that traders are becoming increasingly confident about the direction of monetary policy at the end of the year.
That said, expectations are one thing, but how Powell actually decides is another. The crypto market has always been sensitive to changes in interest rates; will this wave of heightened expectations bring about a new round of capital flows? The next few weeks are worth keeping a close eye on.
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InscriptionGriller
· 12-01 07:15
87% probability? Ha, this is the story that suckers love to hear. Powell can reverse it in a minute with just one sentence, and by then the funds will run faster than cutting wheat.
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ImpermanentLossFan
· 11-30 14:01
87% sounds daunting, but Powell can reverse it with just one sentence; that's how our crypto world operates with a gambling mentality.
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Expectations are just that; it's the actual implementation that counts, and the crypto world goes through this every time.
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Polymarket's data is just for reference; don't take it too seriously, it can change in an instant.
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There will definitely be capital flow, it just depends on where it goes; the stablecoin framework has quite a bit of room for imagination.
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It's another round of psychological games; let's wait and see how December plays out.
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This wave of market activity really relies on interest rate cut expectations; once Powell goes hawkish, it's all over.
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The Hong Kong stablecoin framework is favourable in the long run, but in the short term, we still have to follow the Fed's play.
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HodlOrRegret
· 11-28 16:41
I believe this figure of 87%, but Powell can reverse the situation with just one word; I've seen it happen too many times.
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GamefiHarvester
· 11-28 16:39
87% This number is a bit precarious; a single word from Powell could reverse it.
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Deconstructionist
· 11-28 16:39
A 87% probability sounds impressive, but I'm tired of this kind of expectation game. Powell can reverse the situation with just one sentence, and then it will be chaos everywhere.
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0xSleepDeprived
· 11-28 16:39
87% chance sounds like a bluff, but if old Mr. Bao really turns around, it's all over.
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NeverPresent
· 11-28 16:38
87% this number is a bit scary, with traders collectively betting so high, it makes one wonder if it will reverse.
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Whale_Whisperer
· 11-28 16:33
87% this number seems a bit exaggerated. Is Polymarket's prediction market really that accurate? Anyway, I don't believe Powell will be that obedient.
The market trend is changing again #香港稳定币监管框架 .
Polymarket's latest data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 87%—a significant increase from last week. It seems that traders are becoming increasingly confident about the direction of monetary policy at the end of the year.
That said, expectations are one thing, but how Powell actually decides is another. The crypto market has always been sensitive to changes in interest rates; will this wave of heightened expectations bring about a new round of capital flows? The next few weeks are worth keeping a close eye on.