3 core signals for escaping a bull run: Don't let greed overlook the warning signs.

The bull run will eventually come to an end, but it never happens suddenly— the market will release three clear signals, yet most people will selectively ignore them due to greed, only to realize the truth three months after the bear market arrives.

1. The real case of the 2021 bull run crash

In November 2021, when BTC reached a new high of $69,000, a certain investor held a floating profit of 1.5 million but insisted that "the bull run has just begun, with a target of $200,000." Subsequently:

- After 3 months, BTC dropped to $35,000, with floating profits returning to zero;
- Fell to $20,000 after 6 months, resulting in deep losses.
The root cause is not the unperceived risks, but the disregard for the market's three warnings.

2. Three Major Warning Signals of a Bull Run Ending (With Data Support)

1. Retail investors are flooding in (top pre-positioning signal)

- Key indicators: Google Trends heat reaches an all-time high, surge in new wallet addresses, non-professional groups (such as elders, market vendors) are discussing cryptocurrencies.
- Typical scenario in November 2021: Most retail investors and friends consulted about buying coins, at which point the market's buying power reached its peak, and I immediately liquidated 80% of my position.

2. The sentiment remains optimistic after the crash (top confirmation signal)

- Key features: BTC fell 10%-20% in a single day (for example, in December 2021, it dropped from 69,000 to 46,000, a decrease of 33%), but social media is full of voices saying "buying opportunity" and "bull run normal correction";
- Essence: Retail investors develop a path dependence of "after a drop, there must be a rise" in long-term profits, becoming numb to risks.

3. Institutions quietly retreat (deadly signal at the top)

- Core data: On-chain whale addresses continue to reduce holdings, exchange funds have shifted from net inflow to net outflow, and institutional product premiums have turned negative (e.g., the Grayscale GBTC premium turned negative in December 2021, and the discount widened to 30% in January 2022);
- Key: Retail investors often focus on candlestick charts rather than on-chain data, missing the core warning of institutional withdrawals.

3. Interpretation of Current Market Signals (Based on Real-time Data)

1. Retail sentiment: Google Trends heat is far below the peak in 2021, the growth rate of new wallets is steady, and there is no sign of a nationwide cryptocurrency trading frenzy;
2. Reaction to the pullback: Recently, BTC dropped from 106,000 to 91,000 (a decrease of 14%), with panic and complaints evident on social media, and no atmosphere of blind bottom fishing;
3. Institutional actions: On-chain whales continue to accumulate, net capital outflow from exchanges has become normalized, and the concentration of chips is increasing.

Conclusion: The current pullback is a break in the bull run, and has not yet reached the top range.

4. Core Principles of Topping Out

The hardest part of a bull run is not buying the dip, but maintaining rationality in greed. When the three signals of "retail frenzy + optimistic about the crash + institutional withdrawal" appear simultaneously, it is the best time to gradually liquidate.

Follow me, I will prepare for you a "specific position management plan for partial exit at the peak of the bull run" in the next issue, including the reduction ratio and operation nodes corresponding to different signals✔