2025 crypto world "Black Friday": The curse has come true, should we trust fate or trust the data?

Question

Brothers, there are only 34 days left in 2025, and this year has completely ruined the phrase “Black Friday.”

In the past two months, the crypto circle has been precisely harvested three times, and all three occurred on Fridays, with each drop becoming sharper and each liquidation amount more exaggerated. The community has evolved from initial teasing to collective PTSD.

It is now the evening of November 27th, and Bitcoin is hanging around 88,000. Tomorrow is the real “Black Friday” shopping festival in the West.

The question comes up:

The fourth knife, is it coming again?

First, let's go over these three blood incidents of 2025 (hard to look at)

October 10-15 (First Slice, Flash Crash Appetizer)

The peak was 126,000, dropping straight to around 106,000 within 25 minutes, with $19 billion liquidated across the market and 1.64 million people liquidated, marking the largest single-day massacre in the history of human cryptocurrency.

On that Friday of the week, someone in the crypto community first shouted “Crypto's Black Friday.”

2.11 November 14 (Second cut, breaking position harvesting)

Bitcoin just caught its breath and stood back above 105,000, but on Friday it was directly smashed through the 100,000 mark, resulting in a total explosion of 2 billion dollars across the network.

The community is angry: “The Black Friday curse is real!”

November 21 (Third Cut, Most Bloody of the Year)

Last Friday, without any warning, it dropped from 92,000 straight down to 81,000, with a lowest point of 81,600. In 24 hours, 1.914 billion were liquidated, and 392,000 people were taken out.

The decline from the high point of 126,000 has officially exceeded 35%, completely halving.

The Chinese community exploded with the phrase “Black Friday” on this day, with more hype than Double Eleven.

With three strikes, Friday in 2025 has become the “Death Calendar” of the crypto world.

But is there really a “Black Friday curse” in history?

Many people think that the decline on Black Friday is an old tradition, but it is not the case at all.

I went through the real American Black Fridays from 2011 to 2024 (the day after Thanksgiving), and the results will surprise you:

● The only time there was a drop of over 8% was once in 2021 (Omicron panic) ●Other years: either a slight increase, or volatility, or a significant increase. ●On Black Friday in 2013, it increased by 15%, in 2017 it increased by 8%, and in 2024, it increased by 4-5% compared to last year's Black Friday.

The real conclusion is:

Black Friday on the calendar has never been a curse; what is truly terrifying is the combination of “Friday + high leverage + tightening liquidity.”

In 2025, all three of these elements happened to be present:

●The overall market leverage ratio has reached a historic high (average 30-50 times) ● US stock quarterly settlement + marginal tightening of macro liquidity ●The policy vacuum after Trump's rise to power left the market without a backbone.

Thus, “Friday” became the triggering day of the Lehman Moment, rather than the last Friday of November on the calendar.

So will there be a fourth time tomorrow (November 28) or not?

I have laid out all the variables I can think of, you can make your own judgment:

Reasons why it will fall (I personally tend to think this)

The market has developed a conditioned reflex panic sell-off as it has dropped on Fridays for the past three weeks.
Tomorrow is the real Black Friday in the United States, with the shopping festival and quadruple witching (options and futures expiry) overlapping, historically the volatility has been extremely high.
The current long positions are still very heavy, with Coinglass data showing a BTC long-short ratio of 1.92; the shorts will explode as soon as they hit the gas.

Below the position of 48,800 is a vacuum; if it breaks, it will reach 80,000.

Reasons why it won't drop

Historical data shows that true Black Fridays rarely experience a crash (survivorship bias is debunked)
The market has suffered three consecutive losses, the bulls are almost dead, and the bears may be running out of ammunition.
The Trump team recently hinted at a “strategic Bitcoin reserve,” and there may be positive news released before the weekend to save the situation.
Technically, the RSI is oversold, and the VIX panic index is also declining.

Written at the end

In 2025, “Black Friday” transformed from a meme into a true annual horror film.

The horror movie has now reached the fourth installment, and the director is asking if you want to see the finale.

I have personally cleared my leverage, holding onto the spot, and keeping my futures position empty, just waiting to see what happens tomorrow.

How about you?

Is it that cursed spell that will stab you again,

Or will the dealer finally go easy on us, allowing us to have a good year?

See you at the market tomorrow night at 8 PM.

(Don't forget, this article might come back to bite me tomorrow night, but I'm willing to post it, so I'm willing to own it.)

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The above information is organized based on online information, does not represent the views of the AiCoin platform, and does not constitute any investment advice. Readers are advised to discern and manage their own financial risks.