Daily Analysis for #ETH

1️⃣ Structural interpretation: Before the big cake has a clear rise, Ethereum can only be a bit strong at most and will never show an independent market trend. We must believe in the suppression of bloodline. Below, we continue to pay attention to 2800-2760 (short-term).
2️⃣ Fund Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamic Fund Flow (Market "Blood Transfusion" Situation): Institutional funds show signs of re-entering. The US spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of $96.67 million on Monday, breaking the previous streak of eight consecutive days of outflows, which is a positive short-term signal. On-chain data (Large Holder "Bottom Card" Trends): Whale activities show significant differentiation. Over the past week, whale addresses holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH have accumulated about 440,000 ETH, indicating that the largest investors are seizing the opportunity to accumulate. However, medium-sized addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH have reduced their holdings by 100,000 ETH. Meanwhile, an address suspected to be related to Fenbushi Capital deposited 10,400 ETH into Binance, which may indicate potential selling pressure. Exchange Dynamics (Market "Sentiment" Thermometer): The speed of net outflows from exchanges has significantly slowed down. In the past 24 hours, the net outflow amount of ETH from centralized exchange (CEX) was only 2,416, in stark contrast to the daily outflow scale of hundreds of thousands in mid-November. This may indicate that the urgent demand for withdrawals in the short term has been satisfied, and the market has entered a wait-and-see phase.
3️⃣ The intraday trading strategy is as we discussed yesterday, the market is currently fluctuating around the one-hour mark. There are more obvious signs of the one-hour chart leveling off compared to yesterday, but overall it is still trending upward. We need to be cautious of a quick pullback after a surge in the market. For short-term long positions, we continue to monitor the 2760-2800 range to see if it can form effective support. If signals such as hammer candlesticks or bullish engulfing patterns appear, they can be seen as ideal entry points for going long. Although from a technical perspective, we can consider going long, it is essential to keep up with the current situation in real-time. Currently, we are in a phase of inducing longs and short squeezes, whether it is a long or short position, if something feels off, exit immediately without hesitation.
4️⃣ Risk Warning Whale Divergence Risk: Although the largest whales are accumulating, the continuous reduction of medium-sized whales and the suspected institutional addresses transferring to exchanges indicate that the large selling pressure has not completely disappeared, which may limit the price upside. Technical Resistance Risk: The 3,000 level is not only a psychological round number, but the nearby 3,100 USD also constitutes strong resistance. Before an effective breakout occurs, the rebound path will be fraught with obstacles. Market Correlation Risk: The price movement of ETH is highly correlated with BTC. If BTC cannot stabilize around 88,000 USD and chooses to go down, ETH will find it hard to stand alone, and the support at 2,800 USD below will face severe testing.