Brothers, based on the voting predictions made from the statements of the Fed officials (specially charted), the ratio of the number of officials supporting no rate cut in December to those supporting a rate cut may be 5:7, with the rate cut leading by 2 votes. This situation means that as long as one member from the PI side wavers, both sides will be tied.

The Fed is torn apart, as there has never been a Federal Reserve meeting with 4 dissenting votes since 1992, let alone 5.

Therefore, in order to maintain the appearance of harmony, December is highly likely to see a hawkish rate cut, which means a 25BP rate cut, followed by Powell making strong statements to delay the subsequent rate cut pace. However, this is not a big issue, as Powell will resign on May 15 next year, and the U.S. will restart the easing cycle, which has already become a trend.