Spot: $BTC/USDT

Entry price: 92600-94200
Target Price:

- TP1: 88500
- TP2: 86000
- TP3: 83500
Stop-loss price: above 95200

Sell reason:

1. Shape Confirmation:
- The daily level has formed a "double top" reversal structure (neckline at 88500), with a top depth of 6700 (88500-95200)
- Measure of decline = Top depth × 1.618 = 10840 → Target price 3 = 95200 - 10840 = 84360 (actual rounded to integer 83500)
2. Trend Structure:
- The weekly level has broken below the 2024 upward trend line (connecting 83500 to 86000), with the price dropping below MA(50) 93000.
- RSI(14)=32 (Weak Zone), MACD death cross followed by expanding green bars, clear bearish dominance signal.
3. Breaking Through Potential:
- After breaking below 88500, it opens up a downward space to 83500.
- If an effective breakout occurs, it may trigger the liquidation of 3.0x leverage contracts.
4. Indicator Verification:
- The OBV indicator has reached a 20-day low, with funds continuously flowing out.
- Funding rate -0.255% (negative for 7 consecutive days), futures open interest decreased by 38%
- On-chain data: Net inflow of the exchange +220,000 pieces, whale holdings decreased by 35%

Strategy Highlights:

- Short at neckline: 92600 entry point is near the neckline of the double top structure, stop loss at 95200 placed above the pattern.
- Volatility Expansion: The Bollinger Band width has expanded to 4.2% (highest in the last 30 days), and the breakout direction may bring a single-day volatility of 12%+
- Time window: In line with market expectations before the release of US non-farm payroll data

Key Signal:

- 95200 is the high point for November 2024, forming strong resistance.
- If the trading volume increases by more than 200% when it breaks below 88500, the downward trend can be confirmed.
- A continuous negative funding rate indicates that short positions are dominant, which may trigger a chain liquidation.

This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.