Daily Analysis #BTC

1️⃣ The interpretation of the structure is closely linked to the overall pessimistic sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. The current market is still somewhat weak. Although we saw some hope last night, this cannot be taken as a sign that the market is strengthening or that the bulls have won. We still need to follow the market structure and technical rules to assess the strength of the market.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamic Capital Flow (Market "Blood Transfusion" Situation): The signals from the capital market have shown differentiation. Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) recorded a net inflow of approximately $54.4 million on November 18. This indicates that during the decline, some traditional channels of funds are still seeking to enter the market, which is a positive signal. Exchange Dynamics (Market "Sentiment" Thermometer): The risks in the derivatives market have not been fully released. Although specific data is missing, based on the market's panic sentiment, high-leverage long positions still face the risk of liquidation, which may amplify the short-term downward momentum.
3️⃣ When making intraday trades, do not blindly catch the bottom; act according to the trend, and consider what trend to follow. The aggressive faction shows weakness around 95000, with long upper shadows and bearish engulfing patterns indicating stagnation; it may be worth considering a light short position, acting in accordance with the trend. The conservative faction should wait for a definitive reversal in the one-hour chart before taking action. My advice is that "not trading" is the best strategy. Be patient and wait for the market to establish a clear direction on its own.
4️⃣ Risk Warning: Sentiment Spread Risk: Market panic is contagious. If ETH cannot stop falling at 2950, its pessimistic sentiment will continue to drag down BTC, leading to a correlated decline. Technical Breakdown Risk: If BTC breaks down significantly below the current key support zone, it may trigger programmatic sell orders and long stop-losses, causing the price to accelerate downwards. High Leverage Liquidation Risk: Market volatility remains very high, and any sharp one-sided fluctuations may liquidate remaining leveraged positions, resulting in a "long squeeze" situation.