Daily Analysis #BTC

1️⃣ Structural interpretation: In the face of a sharp decline, there will inevitably be brave individuals stepping in to buy the dip, and there will be no shortage of them. In just the last 24 hours, over 200,000 people have been liquidated. I told you not to buy the dip and not to go long; you should be grateful to have followed the right person. Otherwise, if you had been trading by yourself these past few months, following market sentiment to buy the dip, you would have long been driven back home by the market. Bitcoin is currently very weak and is more likely to fall. The maximum downward space can be seen around 84,000. Therefore, buying the dip is absolutely not advisable.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-Chain & Exchange Dynamic Capital Flow (Market "Blood Transfusion" Situation): Institutional funds are withdrawing on a large scale. Data shows that a huge outflow of funds has occurred in the US spot Bitcoin ETF, with a net outflow of over $1.4 billion in a single week. This marks the collapse of the core pillars that previously supported the market rebound. On-chain data (Big Holder "Bottom Card" Moves): Long-term holders (whales) have become the main force behind this round of sell-off. Blockchain data indicates that the sell-off behavior of most entities defined as "whales" (holding at least 1,000 BTC) and long-term holders is a major reason for the recent weakness. Many early investors regard $100,000 as an important psychological profit-taking point. Exchange Dynamics (Market "Sentiment" Thermometer): Highly leveraged long positions have suffered a "bloodbath". In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $845 million, with long positions accounting for $508 million, making up the vast majority. The situation has also been dire in the past 4 hours, with liquidation amount reaching $309 million, of which long positions accounted for $292 million.
3️⃣ Do not blindly bottom-fish in intraday trading. Before a clear bottom reversal signal appears, any counter-trend long positions are like moths to a flame. The aggressive side is struggling to push up near 95,000 and has shown long upper shadows and bearish engulfing patterns, indicating a slowdown; consider lightly shorting and going with the trend. For the conservative side, wait for the hour of reversal before taking action. My advice of "no action" is the best action. Maintain ample cash and wait for the market to provide a clear signal of stop-loss stability.
4️⃣ Risk Warning Emotional Selling Spread Risk: Negative sentiment in the market is rising sharply, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has officially dropped to 10, indicating "Extreme Fear." In extreme panic, investors are prone to irrational selling, leading to unexpected "flash crashes" in prices. Macro Pressure Risk: Traders are closely watching Nvidia's earnings report set to be released on Wednesday during Eastern Time - the company is a bellwether for the tech sector and speculative risk - while also monitoring changes in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in December. The decline in the S&P 500 Index on Monday further impacted the market sentiment for various risk assets. Technical Bear Market Risk: Bitcoin has currently fallen over 20% from its October peak, entering a technical bear market. If the $90,000 support is confirmed to be effectively broken, further downside may be opened up, with the options market indicating traders are betting on a price drop to $80,000.