Gold's 2025 Rally: Why The Metal Won't Stop (Yet)

Gold just crushed analyst expectations. We’re talking about a 39% surge year-over-year and 27% gains since January—at $3,337/oz, gold has already blown past every major bank’s 2025 forecast.

JP Morgan just revised their target upward to $3,675/oz mid-year. Goldman Sachs and Citi’s $3,000 target? Already in the bag.

What’s fueling this? Three forces are aligning:

1. De-dollarization playbook — China and Russia are ditching dollars for gold reserves, while emerging markets are cutting dollar dependency. Central banks are hoarding gold like never before.

2. Geopolitical chaos premium — US-China trade tensions, Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts. Gold is the ultimate “safe haven” when the world gets messy. 2008 financial crisis? 2020 pandemic? Every crisis sends investors running to gold.

3. Rate cuts = free money for gold — The Fed cut rates 50bp last September, and gold rallied hard. More cuts ahead means gold’s opportunity cost keeps dropping. Meanwhile, bonds and savings accounts suck—gold looks better every day.

The catch? Some analysts (Barclays, Macquarie) still think gold could drop to $2,500 by year-end. That’s a 25% crash. Possible? Unlikely. Most pros are betting on continued upside with maybe a small pullback in H2.

Bottom line: Don’t catch a falling knife if gold corrects, but the structural drivers (geopolitical risk, central bank buying, rate cuts) suggest higher prices are the path of least resistance.