Cotton Futures Slip as Dollar Strengthens, Oil Pulls Back

Cotton caught a bid through most of Thursday’s session, but couldn’t hold ground into the close—December contracts fell 75 points to 64.48 cents/lb, while March and May months gave up 66 and 62 points respectively.

The headwinds were broad-based: crude tanked 7 cents to $59.53/barrel, and the dollar index climbed $0.499 to 99.560, making dollar-denominated commodities less attractive to international buyers. Meanwhile, the Cotlook A Index tracked lower by 55 points, settling at 76.55 cents—a sign that global cotton sentiment is cooling.

The Data Check

The Seam’s Wednesday online auction moved 2,463 bales at an average of 62.98 cents/lb—solid volume but prices couldn’t translate that into momentum. ICE certified stocks held steady at 13,749 bales as of November 4, no surprises there.

One data gap: The AWP (Agricultural Price Index) remains offline due to the US government shutdown, so traders are flying partially blind on some key metrics.

What This Means

With crude retreating and the dollar strengthening, the macro environment isn’t helping cotton find a bid. That said, the index only dropped 55 points—not a panic sell-off. If crude stabilizes and dollar volatility eases, we could see a technical bounce, but the near-term setup favors continued pressure on prices.

Watching: Can cotton find support around the 64-cent level, or are we heading lower?