Canada's Job Market Surprise Triggers Mixed Trading Signal

Canadian equities wrapped Friday on a tight rope—the TSX Composite inched up just 0.15% to 29,912 after zigzagging through employment data and trade deal whispers.

The Jobs Plot Twist

Statistics Canada dropped a curveball: unemployment dropped to 6.9% in October (from 7.1% in September), beating expectations. But here’s the kicker—67k new jobs masked a shift: full-time roles dipped 18.5k while part-time surged 85.1k. Youth unemployment finally caught a break, falling 0.6% to 14.1%, snapping an 8-month drought.

Wall Street was bracing for rate cuts, but this jobs beat just nuked those expectations. The Bank of Canada’s recent 2.25% overnight rate is now looking sticky.

**Trade Talks: Back On?

PM Mark Carney dropped a teaser in Toronto: Canada-U.S. trade negotiations will “restart at some point.” Translation: maybe. The U.S. has been hammering Canadian imports with 35% tariffs since August, plus threatened 10% on top. The Bank of Canada estimates this could shave 1.5% off growth by 2026—roughly $40 billion in lost GDP.

The Scoreboard

Materials (+1.42%) and Utilities (+0.94%) led the charge. Tech got hammered (-2.61%), dragging down Real Estate (-0.71%) along for the ride.

Notable movers: Algonquin Power rocketed 7.79%, while Altus Group tanked 12%.

What’s Next?

That jobs report just rewrote the BoC playbook. Rate cuts are off the table unless economic momentum stalls fast. Meanwhile, traders are parsing every word on trade talks—one deal announcement could repricing the entire index.