Soybeans Just Got Hit With the Classic 'Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact' Move

Soybean traders got played hard this week. Tuesday was all hype—the market rallied 4.75 to 11.25 cents across contracts after rumors surfaced that China might snap up 180,000 MT of beans ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. Shorts scrambled to cover (open interest dropped 19,701 contracts), and everyone was feeling bullish.

Then Wednesday happened. Beans are now down 8-9 cents, giving back most of those gains in classic sell-the-fact fashion. The hype died the moment people realized actual details won’t materialize anytime soon—thanks to the US government shutdown blocking export data releases.

Here’s the current damage:

• Nov 25 Soybeans: Closed +11¢ at $10.78¼, now down 8¾¢
• Jan 26 contract: Up 10¼¢ yesterday, down 9¢ today
• Mar 26 contract: Up 11¼¢ yesterday, down 9¢ today
• Cash prices held stronger at $10.10½ (up 11¾¢)
• Soybean Meal: Up $6.20 to $8.50
• Soy Oil: Got hammered, down 16-51 points

The real kicker? Brazil’s October soybean exports just got revised down 340,000 MT to 7 MMT. Meanwhile, the Crop Progress report never even dropped because of the shutdown—so nobody knows how far along the US harvest actually is.

Trade was looking for 84% completion by late October, but we’re flying blind right now. This is exactly the kind of volatility you get when fundamentals are scarce and rumors are all anyone has to trade on.