The Global Copper Squeeze Is Getting Real—Here's Where Your Supply Actually Comes From

Copper just hit $5/lb for the first time ever in May 2024, and it’s not a random pump. The real story? Supply is tightening while old mines are aging out, and no new capacity is rushing in to fill the gap. Meanwhile, the energy transition (EVs, solar panels, grid infrastructure) is about to double down on copper demand.

Here’s the production breakdown by country in 2024:

Top 5 Copper Producers:

• Chile dominates with 5.3M MT (23% of global output). BHP’s Escondida mine alone pumps ~1.13M MT annually—still the world’s largest single copper operation.
• DRC surged to 3.3M MT, up from 2.93M MT in 2023. Ivanhoe’s Kamoa-Kakula is ramping hard—437k MT in 2024, heading for 520-580k MT in 2025.
• Peru sits at 2.6M MT but slipped 160k MT YoY. Freeport’s Cerro Verde (1.94M MT capacity) hit maintenance headwinds.
• China produces only 1.8M MT of mine copper—but here’s the kicker: refined copper output hits 12M MT annually (44% of global refining). China’s basically the world’s copper recycler.
• Indonesia just cracked 1.1M MT, passing the US. Freeport’s Grasberg complex is carrying the load, and a new smelter just came online to process 900k MT of concentrate yearly.

The Supply Math: Global production hit 23M MT in 2024. But forecasters expect supply deficits ahead—which means copper bulls have structural tailwinds for years.

Investor angle: Watch the DRC (fastest growth), Indonesia (capacity coming online), and Chile’s 2025 ramp-up to 6M MT. These three will dictate global copper prices for the next decade.