Prediction markets are pricing in an 84% probability that Washington's government shutdown drama wraps up by November 13th. The odds have been climbing as negotiations heat up on Capitol Hill. Decentralized forecasting platforms continue proving their edge in tracking real-time sentiment shifts around major political events—way faster than traditional polls ever could. This shutdown saga's been rattling markets for weeks now, but the consensus leans heavily toward a resolution before mid-month. Whether that confidence holds or crumbles depends on how the next few days of backroom deals shake out.