The price fluctuation today is quite large, but due to market influences, it is very likely that investors are anticipating the possibility of the United States government facing a shutdown. Currently, on Kalshi, the likelihood of the United States government facing a shutdown on October 1 has risen to 83%, and during the shutdown period, the current options that are no more than 10 days are the leading choice, while options that exceed 10 days are relatively few.

I looked at historical data, in most cases less than 14 days, most investors still believe that the shutdown can be resolved within 10 days, the most common choice is to believe that it will end over the weekend, because if it goes past the weekend, Trump has already spoken, it is very likely that there will be massive layoffs of federal government employees. I suddenly thought, will this increase the unemployment rate pushing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates? Very likely.
In addition, Trump's preparation to send nuclear submarines to Russia is also a reason that makes the market worried. Although Trump has repeatedly explained that the nuclear submarines would not be detected by Russia and would strive not to be used, if Russia remains stubborn, Trump may also not suggest giving a warning. This would be a big problem for the market, as once Russia starts using nuclear weapons, the market is expected to immediately begin the "final fall."
Of course, I believe this will not be activated unless in very urgent circumstances. Let's wait and see, hopefully Russia does not take rash actions.
Back to BTC data, the change in the turnover ratio is not too significant, a slight drop in price is likely still related to investor concerns about the possibility of a blockage in America. However, both from the perspective of the US stock market and the price $BTC , the temporary impact is still relatively limited. If a blockage truly occurs tomorrow in US time, then the market will fully anticipate whether the decline will lessen or continue to decrease due to the blockage. We should be able to see the answer next Monday.
Although the price of BTC has fallen, overall chip distribution is still very healthy, the strength of the support level is also quite good, but it does not rule out the possibility that the tensions caused by the halt could worsen investor fears. In simple terms, if a recovery occurs next Monday, then there is a good chance there will be weekend fluctuation movements, but if it remains in a halt next week, it could indeed worsen the pessimistic hopes in the market.