📊 NFP Night Flash Report | Dollar cools down, Crypto heats up?

In August, the NFP was only +75K (, while the July figure of +73K also recorded many years of low values ), and the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%. The yield on U.S. bonds fell to ~4.2%, the DXY index decreased, and markets immediately assessed the likelihood of a rate cut in September at more than 90%.
⚖️ Macro transfer
Weak NFP = Fed is forced to ease policy → Dollar falls, risky assets rise.
Strong NFP (, if it surprises, big ) = Dollar rises sharply, cryptocurrency devalues.
Historical notes: In bullish years, ETH fell by -21% (2017) and by -12% (2021) in September. But October "Uptober" often averaged +20% profit. September is a time for trimming; October is a time for sprinting.
📊 Market Observation
FedWatch: 95% chance of a rate cut — almost guaranteed.
Institutions: the August ETF + treasury inflows purchased ~2.5M ETH, 33x the monthly issuance.
Whales: Some BTC veterans have switched to ETH and have fully staked it → clear investment.
Volatility: on NFP day, the average change in BTC is 1.7x compared to a normal day.
🎯 Key levels
$BTC: Support at 108K, resistance 112K → 116K.
$ETH : Battle at the level 4,250 — hold this and target 4.8K → 5K.
$SOL: $200 is the replenishment zone; with volume, targets 216 → 238.
🧭 Order Book
Conservative: Wait for confirmation before chasing — less potential, less risk.
Aggressively: Increase positions on dips (BTC 108K, ETH 4.25K, SOL around 200), stops should be tight.
Races: The September Cut is the "bull market lunchbox" — buy the dips, keep target values for the end of the year (BTC 120K, ETH 5K+).
🐂 Conclusion
This is not just another day of data — it’s a policy reset. Weak NFP = the Fed becomes more dovish, the dollar loses ground, cryptocurrency takes the initiative. September may be shaky, but October often serves as a launching pad. The question is: are you just watching or joining in?
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📊 NFP NFP NFP news report｜Dollar cooled down, is the crypto world excited?
In August, NFP was only +75K ( combined with July's +73K, this creates a low figure for the past few years), the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The yield on U.S. bonds fell to ~4.2%, the Dollar Index DXY retreated, and the market directly assessed the probability of a rate cut in September at over 90%.
⚖️ Macro transfer
Weak NFP = Fed forced to be dovish → Dollar falls, risk assets rise.
Strong data on NFP ( let's assume they are off the charts ) = dollar flies, the crypto market will suffer.
Historical archaeology: during the bull market years, September saw ETH drop by -21% (2017), -12% (2021); but in October "Uptober" usually grows by more than 20%. September for training, October for sprinting.
📊 Market observation
FedWatch: the probability of a rate cut is 95%, almost certain.
Organization: in August, the ETF + storage bought ~2.5M ETH, which is 33 times the volume of new issues this month.
Whale: issued Bitcoin OG, transferred funds to ETH and fully collateralized them → funds are clearly being redistributed.
Volatility: the amplitude of BTC on NFP day is usually 1.7 times higher than on regular days.
🎯 technical level
$BTC : support 108K, resistance 112K → 116K
$ETH: The level of separation between long and short positions is at 4,250; if it holds, there will be another attempt at 4.8K → 5K.
$SOL: 200 Dollar is the support level, with an increase in volume we expect growth to 216 → 238
🧭 Operational Strategy
Conservatives: wait for confirmation before pursuing, participate less in the game and take fewer hits.
Active players: phased purchase of (BTC 108K, ETH 4.25K, SOL about 200), stop-loss fixed.
Sidebar: September volatility is a "bento box for a bull market" - buy on the dip, the year-end target remains unchanged at (BTC 120K, ETH 5K+).
🐂 Withdrawal
This is not an ordinary data day, but a policy adjustment field. Weak NFP data = the Fed will definitely be dovish, the Dollar will weaken, and the crypto industry will take the initiative. September may be volatile, but October is often a launching pad for rockets. You need to decide whether you want to just watch or join in.