After btc effectively fell below 117000, a M-top structure formed from the 3-day to the weekly level, so it quickly turned bearish in the short term. So where will the lowest pullback reach its bottom? Many people see 98000, and the basis for seeing 98000 is that it considers 98500 on 6.20 as the left side starting point, and after reaching the high point of 124500, it pulls back according to a 1:1 ratio. There are also views that it will pull back to 60,000 or 40,000. Those who see 60-40k are influenced by the previous bull run, as it fell about 50% near 64000. Therefore, they will habitually expect a 50% decline again, so for 124550, a 50% drop would be around 62300. This view is the most aggressive, directly determining that this round of the bull run has completely ended.

But my point is that we can't just look at 60k or 40k after a pullback, or 140k or 150k after a rise; that would be too extreme. If it's spot trading, we can hold on without doing anything, as there will definitely be a wave of peak market in October-November. Looking at the short term, being bearish is reasonable right now, but the daily chart MACD has not yet returned to zero, so we can't fully confirm whether we will upgrade the adjustment to a weekly chart level pullback; we need to watch step by step. If we adjust at the weekly chart level, starting from 98500 for a 1:1 ratio pullback, we first need to break through the 112000 position and then watch the 106000 support. These are the two most important key levels coming up. This Thursday, there will be important information; if a favorable news is released and the 112000 level holds, we will continue to rebound upwards. If there is no favorable news, institutions will inevitably abandon the resistance at 112000-110000, and 110k will prepare to break down, entering a deeper washout phase. If we break below 106000, it will basically confirm that the entire bull run has ended. If it really goes this way, it would completely contradict the market after the interest rate cut in September, so my personal forecast for the ultimate low point would be around 106000 (based on 112000 being effectively broken down).