Bitcoin breaks through 98K USD, why are investors cautious?

* Bitcoin rises above the 98K USD threshold, completely contrary to the negative sentiment of investors; this doubt could be an opportunity.

• Large ETF inflows are driving BTC, but 2022-style risks could disrupt the upward momentum.

Although Bitcoin [BTC] remains stable above the 98K USD threshold, investor sentiment has sharply declined. This brings about a wave of doubt that seems inconsistent with the bullish market.

Is the market stuck in doubt, preparing for a burst of excitement? Or do these signals reflect the bear market of 2022?

With the recent rise of BTC, the current situation may be largely driven by market sentiment as well as fundamental factors.

The Suspicious Price Rally

Recent data shows a clear difference between the price of Bitcoin and market sentiment on X ( previously Twitter) and news platforms.

Even when BTC trades confidently above the 98K USD threshold, the 7-day average sentiment remains negative – a historical pattern associated with local bottoms and contrarian buying opportunities.

Source: Alphractal

This prolonged doubt indicates that the market is lagging psychologically behind the price action.

Although these previous declines in sentiment have paved the way for strong recoveries, it is essential to remember the cautionary lesson from 2022 when prolonged negativity coincided with a bear market.

The organizational engine behind BTC

A notable change on the ETF money flow chart: after weeks of continuous outflow, April has brought a significant spot ETF money flow.

The interest of major financial institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity has driven the surge of Bitcoin, pushing it beyond the 98K USD threshold.

Source: Glassnode

Unlike the volatile capital flows in previous months, this period shows stable daily net capital flows, signaling strong long-term confidence.

The trust of the organization may be the key force behind the increase, although the shop sentiment remains cautious.

What could go wrong?

Although the ETF money flow signals optimism, history reminds investors to always be cautious.

In 2022, the optimistic sentiment driven by institutional products and macro trends collapsed due to the liquidity shock and excess leverage.

A sudden change in risk appetite or regulatory pressure could lead to a rapid outflow of funds, reversing the recent uptrend.

Although ETFs provide transparency, they do not protect Bitcoin from market volatility. If the inflow of funds slows down or turns into redemptions, Bitcoin may face sell-offs similar to previous cycles.

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