CITIC Securities: Still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates no more than 2 times this year.

[CITIC Securities: It is still expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates less than or equal to 2 times this year] CITIC Securities Research Report said that the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in May 2025 will keep the policy rate unchanged, and the meeting statement emphasized that “uncertainty will further intensify”. Powell’s speech revolved around the words “uncertain” and “walking and seeing,” and there seemed to be little incremental information. However, based on our “transitory inflation + weaker growth + high uncertainty” analytical framework, the current US economic data and inflation expectations have been reduced in response to interest rate cut expectations. We continue to expect the Fed to cut rates less than or equal to two times this year, and we expect the Fed to keep the policy rate unchanged at the June meeting. On the market front, the lackluster meeting did not make too many waves, we expect the market to still trade around Trump’s tariff policy in the short term, the US dollar bearish sentiment in the foreign exchange market is still heavy, and the outlook for US stocks is not yet clear, and we expect to remain volatile in the short term. ( gold ten )