Ethereum at a crossroads: ETF demand stagnates and the push from retail investors

* Institutional ETH inflows are stalling, similar to the conditions before a significant price fall.

• Retail investor purchases, especially from the United States, could trigger a price increase even with signals of a fall from institutions.

Ethereum [ETH] is entering a critical phase.

Funds flowing into the ETF have stagnated, reflecting the situation before the 30% fall in March.

At the same time, retail investors in the United States are accumulating strongly, raising the question: will new purchases be enough to overcome resistance, or will the lack of institutional money pull ETH into another sell-off?

Accumulation by institutional investors — What is about to happen?

The analysis of the Netflow cash flow of the Ethereum ETF fund shows a pattern of activity among institutional investors.

Usually, when there is a slight accumulation over two days, it is followed by a large-scale sell-off.

For example, from February 18 to 19, they bought 8,790 ETH before selling 146,950 ETH.

Trader bought 5.890 ETH on March 30 and 31, then sold 28.950 ETH — assuming a 1-day buying interval.

Source: CoinGlass

If we do not take this pause into account, the Trader has sold a total of 100,100 ETH afterwards.

This pattern has reappeared on the chart, with the organization buying only 14,570 ETH in the past two days.

For the first time occurring, this caused a fall of 38.56%, while the second time fell by 29.30%.

Source: TradingView

If history repeats itself, ETH could face a deep correction. However, the picture is not entirely bleak.

Accumulation of ETH remains high

There has been a notable accumulation of ETH in the market over the past few days.

In fact, American investors are leading this movement.

In the past week, the Netflow indicates that investors are buying in.

These investors have purchased 380 million USD worth of ETH, contributing to the ongoing accumulation trend.

Source: IntoTheBlock

Interestingly, the Coinbase Premium index, used to determine buying or selling from U.S. investors, tells a similar story.

The index is still above zero, currently at 0.042 and rising, indicating stable demand.

If the buying trend continues and the index rises higher, then ETH is likely to witness a price increase.

Source: CryptoQuant

On the contrary, the high premium of the market for lending back shows a different prospect, as it remains in the negative region.

With a level of -0.6, this implies that fund investors are mainly selling off.

If selling pressure continues to increase, it could exacerbate the existing negative sentiment, raising the likelihood of a fall in altcoin prices.

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