According to the latest market conditions on May 2, 2025 (as of the time of writing, the price is $1,838.45, with a 24H Fluctuation range of $1,716-$1,888), combined with the Bollinger Bands and MACD indicators, the following precise trading strategy is formulated.

Core Strategy and Price Levels
1. Breakthrough Long Position
- Entry conditions: Price stabilizes at $1,849 (Bollinger Band upper resistance), confirmed breakout with a 1-hour close, and trading volume expands to over 1 million USDT.
- Target: Short-term outlook towards $1,872-$1,888 (previous high resistance zone), looking to $1,900 after a breakout.
- Stop Loss: Dynamic adjustment to below $1,833 (Bollinger Band middle support), protecting profits.
2. Support level rebound to go long
- Entry Conditions: Price retraces to stabilize in the range of $1,759-$1,716 (strong daily support + convergence of the lower Bollinger Band), combined with 1-hour RSI < 30 or MACD bullish divergence.
- Goal: rebound to $1,803-$1,830 (mid-range resistance), take profits in batches after breaking through.
- Stop-loss: Strictly set below $1,700 (key psychological level), risk ≤ 3%.
3. Resistance level short selling
- Entry conditions: Price rebounds to the resistance of 1,872-1,888 USD (previous high + MACD bearish signal), with a long upper shadow or a 1-hour KDJ death cross.
- Target: Pull back to $1,833-$1,849 (Bollinger Band middle line), break below looks at $1,759.
- Stop Loss: Set above $1,900 to guard against false breakouts.
Key Linkage and Risk Control
- BTC Correlation: If Bitcoin stabilizes above $85,000, ETH may rally in response; if it drops below $83,000, it could drag ETH into a faster correction.
- Indicator Signal: The current MACD (-0.45) is in the bearish zone, but the Bollinger Bands are narrowing (middle band at $1,841), so be cautious of a directional breakout.
- On-chain risk: The current price of ETH is approaching the maximum pain point of $1,830 for options, and if it falls below $1,759, it could trigger liquidations exceeding $400 million.
Position Management
- Total position: ≤50%, single leverage ≤3 times (use with caution under high fluctuation).
- Stop-loss discipline: Strictly set stop-loss, exit if it falls below $1,700 or BTC loses $83,000.
- DCA plan: If the price sharply drops below **$1,716 (Bollinger Band lower limit), reserve 20% of funds for gradual bottom fishing.
Summary
ETH is currently in a wide fluctuation between $1,716 and $1,888, with a focus on a breakout trading strategy for the day. If it stabilizes above $1,849, a small long position can be taken, while a resistance at $1,888 would lead to a short position. Pay attention to the contest around the Bollinger Band middle line (at $1,841) and MACD recovery signals, and implement strict stop-loss measures to avoid emotional trading. #非农就业数据将公布