What will be the bottom point of the current BTC bear market?
As of January 27, 2026, BTC's current price is approximately $90,000. The core range and scenarios for the 2026 bear market low are as follows, mainly depending on macro factors, ETF capital flows, and on-chain support strength.
1. Core Range (probability from high to low)
- Baseline (60%-70%): $58,000 - $65,000. Corresponds to 75% supply cost support, the breakeven line for miners after halving, combined with moderate ETF outflows, Federal Reserve tightening but not extreme, representing the typical institutional consensus bear market bottom.
- Conservative (20%-25%): $45,000 - $55,000. Triggered by continuous ETF net outflows, tightening regulations, and US stock market corrections, reaching 50%-60% retracement of historical cycles, and the long-term holder cost zone on-chain.
- Pessimistic (5%-10%): $38,000 - $42,000. Requires macro liquidity crises plus industry black swan events (such as major institutional defaults or strict regulatory bans), an extreme scenario at the depth of a historical bear market, with low probability.
- Extreme (<5%): below $30,000. Only occurs during global financial turmoil and comprehensive restrictions on the crypto industry, with very low probability.
2. Key Supports and Trigger Signals
1. On-chain anchors: $58,000 (75% supply holding cost), $48,000 (average cost for long-term holders). Breaking below accelerates downward movement.
2. ETF capital flows: Transition from weekly net inflows to sustained net outflows (over $1 billion per week), a core signal of bear market deepening.
3. Macro triggers: Federal Reserve restarting rate hikes, inflation rebound, US stock market crash (S&P 500 down over 20%), will amplify BTC declines.
4. Time window: Q3-Q4 2026 marks the latter part of the cycle, with selling pressure likely to be concentrated and released, and the bottom most probably occurring within this range.
3. Conclusion
The most likely bottom of BTC in 2026 is in the range of $58,000 - $65,000; if there are dual shocks from liquidity and regulation, it could dip to $45,000 - $55,000; only in extreme scenarios might it fall below $40,000.
As of January 27, 2026, BTC's current price is approximately $90,000. The core range and scenarios for the 2026 bear market low are as follows, mainly depending on macro factors, ETF capital flows, and on-chain support strength.
1. Core Range (probability from high to low)
- Baseline (60%-70%): $58,000 - $65,000. Corresponds to 75% supply cost support, the breakeven line for miners after halving, combined with moderate ETF outflows, Federal Reserve tightening but not extreme, representing the typical institutional consensus bear market bottom.
- Conservative (20%-25%): $45,000 - $55,000. Triggered by continuous ETF net outflows, tightening regulations, and US stock market corrections, reaching 50%-60% retracement of historical cycles, and the long-term holder cost zone on-chain.
- Pessimistic (5%-10%): $38,000 - $42,000. Requires macro liquidity crises plus industry black swan events (such as major institutional defaults or strict regulatory bans), an extreme scenario at the depth of a historical bear market, with low probability.
- Extreme (<5%): below $30,000. Only occurs during global financial turmoil and comprehensive restrictions on the crypto industry, with very low probability.
2. Key Supports and Trigger Signals
1. On-chain anchors: $58,000 (75% supply holding cost), $48,000 (average cost for long-term holders). Breaking below accelerates downward movement.
2. ETF capital flows: Transition from weekly net inflows to sustained net outflows (over $1 billion per week), a core signal of bear market deepening.
3. Macro triggers: Federal Reserve restarting rate hikes, inflation rebound, US stock market crash (S&P 500 down over 20%), will amplify BTC declines.
4. Time window: Q3-Q4 2026 marks the latter part of the cycle, with selling pressure likely to be concentrated and released, and the bottom most probably occurring within this range.
3. Conclusion
The most likely bottom of BTC in 2026 is in the range of $58,000 - $65,000; if there are dual shocks from liquidity and regulation, it could dip to $45,000 - $55,000; only in extreme scenarios might it fall below $40,000.
