Stellar (XLM) Price Prediction: Protocol 23 Upgrade Energizes, Aiming for $1 Target

The well-established payment public chain Stellar is becoming the market focus with the upcoming Protocol 23 upgrade, which aims to enhance network throughput to an astonishing 5000 TPS by executing Soroban smart contracts in parallel, resulting in over 150 times improvement from current performance. Market analysts have significant divergence on the XLM price, with optimistic predictions suggesting it may reach a historic high of 1 dollar by 2025, while conservative views expect it to hover around 0.5 dollars in the long term. With the rise of RWA (real-world asset) tokenization, Stellar, positioned for cross-border payments and financial inclusion, is ushering in a crucial year to prove its value.

Protocol 23: Can 5000 TPS Ignite the Stellar 'Technological Singularity'?

For Stellar, the biggest technological catalyst in 2025 is undoubtedly the major network upgrade codenamed “Protocol 23”. The core of this upgrade lies in introducing the ability for parallel execution of Soroban smart contracts, with an ambitious goal set by the officials: to increase the network's processing capacity to 5,000 transactions per second. To understand the significance of this number, we can make an intuitive comparison: the current TPS of the Ethereum mainnet is about 15 to 30, which means that Stellar's upgrade goal will increase the existing performance by more than 150 times, even enough to compete with many Ethereum Layer 2 solutions.

The leap in performance will lead to a significant reduction in costs. Lower transaction fees are key for Stellar to attract developers and commercial users, especially in its traditional stronghold—cross-border payments. Financial institutions like JPMorgan have repeatedly pointed out that truly efficient and low-cost cross-border payment solutions remain scarce globally, which is precisely the issue that Stellar has been committed to solving since its inception. Against the backdrop of RWA and institutional asset tokenization expected to experience rapid growth before 2027, the timely launch of Protocol 23 is strategically well-positioned.

However, there is often a gap that needs to be crossed between the promises made in the technical white paper and the final market acceptance. Successfully upgrading is just the first step; whether it can attract enough DeFi protocol developers, large enterprises' payment settlement systems, and asset tokenization projects to build an ecosystem on its chain will be the true test of whether Stellar can transform from a “potential stock” into a “strong player”. The market is watching to see if Stellar's execution can live up to its grand blueprint.

The Road to 1 Dollar: Optimism and Caution Amidst Analyst Disagreement

Regarding whether and when XLM will reach the psychological barrier of 1 dollar, market analysis institutions have provided vastly different predictions, which precisely reflect the current uncertainty in the crypto market and the complexity of Stellar's fundamentals. Some models based on the altcoin season and the hypothesis of accelerated institutional adoption have given a rather optimistic outlook, predicting that XLM's highest price may reach 1.29 dollars by the end of 2025, with a low point of around 0.65 dollars during the year, and an average price fluctuating around 0.97 dollars. If realized, this would be a new breakthrough since the historical high of 0.94 dollars set in January 2018.

However, reaching the target of $1 is no easy task. Considering that XLM currently has a market value of approximately 8.1 billion euros and a circulating supply of 32.3 billion coins, its price doubling to $1 would mean the market value needs to grow about four times. The realization of this target is heavily dependent on the overall crypto market entering a strong bull market cycle, as well as explosive growth in Stellar's actual adoption in cross-border payments and the RWA track. If the macro environment turns bearish or its own ecological development falls short of expectations, the price of XLM may quickly retreat to near the current support level, continuing its range-bound pattern observed over the past few years.

Comparison of Long-term Price Predictions for XLM by Various Institutions

• Optimistic Model: Peak of $1.29 in 2025, looking at $6.19 in 2030
• Changelly: Relatively conservative, predicting a price of about 1.07 USD in 2030.
• Binance Research: More cautious, long-term forecast value is approximately 0.53 USD
• CoinCodex: Prediction is centered, looking long-term to 0.68 dollars
• All-time high: 0.94 USD (January 2018)

Stellar vs Ripple: The “Grassroots” vs “Elite” Showdown in the Payment Arena

Any discussion about Stellar is difficult to avoid comparison with its “brother” Ripple. The two indeed have deep roots, sharing the same co-founder Jed McCaleb, and both focus on the payment sector. However, after years of development, the two have embarked on completely different philosophical paths: Ripple has chosen the “elite route,” with its strategic core serving banks, financial institutions, and even central banks, building a more centralized and more regulatory-recognized cross-border settlement network; while Stellar adheres to the “grassroots route,” with the mission of promoting financial inclusion, focusing on providing decentralized, low-cost financial service access to emerging markets and individuals.

This philosophical divergence is directly reflected in market performance and adoption strategies. Despite facing a long-term legal dispute with the US SEC, Ripple still maintains a clear advantage in liquidity, brand recognition, and institutional influence due to its deep cooperation with numerous financial institutions. Stellar, on the other hand, excels in transaction fees, network openness, and governance decentralization, but struggles somewhat in attracting commercial partners of a similar scale. In short, Ripple is the current ruler in enterprise-level solutions and deep liquidity pools; while Stellar demonstrates unique charm in peer-to-peer payments and open ecosystem construction.

For investors, it is essential to clearly recognize that XLM and XRP are not mere substitutes. Although they overlap in the payment sector and often exhibit a certain correlation in price movements within the overall volatility of the cryptocurrency market, there are fundamental differences in the underlying logic and market dynamics driving their long-term value. The price trend of XLM will not simply follow that of XRP; the key to its breakthrough lies in whether it can leverage the technological advantages of Protocol 23 to carve out its own scalable application scenarios in the niches of RWA and inclusive finance.

Investment Logic and Risk Examination

When considering adding Stellar to an investment portfolio, investors need to establish a clear multidimensional analytical framework. From a positive perspective, its technology upgrade roadmap is clear and has disruptive potential, with a strong foundation in the traditional cross-border payment sector, aligning with the current industry trends of RWA and asset tokenization. If Protocol 23 can be successfully implemented and lead to ecological prosperity, the valuation logic of XLM will upgrade from a simple “payment token” to an “infrastructure platform token,” opening up new possibilities.

However, the risks cannot be ignored. First, fierce market competition is a major threat, as it not only faces direct competition from Ripple but also needs to compete with numerous public chains such as Ethereum and Solana for developers in the smart contracts platform field. Second, the large circulating supply in its token economic model is an important technical factor that suppresses price increases. Finally, like all altcoins, its price is highly dependent on Bitcoin's trends and the overall market's risk appetite, and it may have weaker resistance during bear markets.

Therefore, a reasonable investment strategy should be based on dynamic assessment. Short-term traders can focus on the market sentiment and technical breakout signals before and after the launch of Protocol 23's mainnet. Medium to long-term investors should adopt a gradual strategy of “observe-verify-allocate”: first observing whether the actual performance and fee data of the network after the upgrade meet the standards; secondly verifying whether its ecosystem (such as Soroban contract locked amount, number of well-known projects entering) shows substantial growth; finally deciding the allocation ratio based on the verification results. In any case, one should avoid making a large one-time investment due to FOMO sentiment.

Conclusion: Between Technological Commitment and Market Validation

Stellar stands at a critical crossroads. The Protocol 23 upgrade gives it the technological capital to redefine itself and impact the industry. The price target of $1 is not just a numerical threshold, but a collective vote from the market on its ability to deliver on the long-term promise of an “efficient and inclusive global value internet.”

In the coming year, Stellar needs to prove two things to the world: first, that its technical team is capable of delivering a stable, efficient, and developer-friendly 5000 TPS network; second, that its ecosystem development can translate this technological advantage into real, large-scale user adoption and commercial value. If both can be achieved, then XLM will naturally break free from historical constraints and embark on a new journey of value discovery. Conversely, it may continue to linger among the ranks of established projects that are “full of potential but always a breath away”. For observers and participants, 2025 is the time to closely monitor Stellar's “performance capability”.