JPMorgan launches Bitcoin structured notes: combining a four-year cycle, betting on a bull run in 2028

If you believe in Bitcoin's “four-year cycle” price rhythm: that is, a pump after the Halving, entering a Bear Market two years later, and then welcoming a bull run. Then the latest structured financial product launched by JPMorgan Chase may become part of your long-term encryption investment portfolio. This note, which is linked to a Bitcoin ETF, has submitted documents to regulators this week, providing an opportunity to participate in Bitcoin's price fluctuations in the coming years, and is designed to achieve potential high returns in the key years of 2026 and 2028.

The “four-year cycle” logic of Bitcoin: this note just hits the mark.

Since its inception, Bitcoin has been widely regarded by market observers as having a distinct “four-year cycle” in its price trend: After each block reward Halving (approximately every four years), it usually enters a bull run characterized by a price pump; then about two years later, it enters an adjusting Bear Market, before strengthening again around the next Halving or its eve.

In 2024, Bitcoin has completed its most recent Halving. If historical patterns repeat, the market may face a downturn in 2026, followed by a strong pump again in 2028. The structured notes launched by JPMorgan align perfectly with this cyclical expectation.

Structural design highlights: If standards are not met before 2026, the deadline will be extended to 2028.

This structured note is linked to the Bitcoin spot ETF: IBIT launched by BlackRock. The product's operating mechanism is as follows:

Observation period of the first phase: By the end of 2026, if the price of IBIT reaches or exceeds the target price set by JPMorgan, the notes will be “redeemed early,” and investors will receive at least a fixed return of 16%.

If IBIT does not meet the target, the notes will be extended until the end of 2028, and investors will continue to hold the position, enjoying the potential for higher returns.

High leverage return mechanism: Up to 1.5 times profit, no upper limit.

If held until the end of 2028, and if the price of the IBIT ETF exceeds the ultimate target price set by JPMorgan, investors will receive 1.5 times the original investment amount, with no upper limit on returns. This means that if the Bitcoin market surges as expected in 2028, the returns could far exceed those of traditional investment tools.

This design attracts institutions or advanced investors who hope to precisely layout the encryption market fluctuations, especially as ETF products gradually become mainstream asset allocation tools.

Risk protection mechanism: If it drops no more than 30%, the principal can be preserved, but if it exceeds that, there will be a loss.

Although this product is designed to create multiple profit opportunities, it is not entirely without risk. JPMorgan emphasizes that the notes do not guarantee the principal. If held until 2028, and the price of the IBIT ETF drops more than 30%, investors will suffer a proportional loss of principal according to the extent of the decline.

For example, if the final price of IBIT is 40% lower than the initial price, investors will lose more than 40% of their principal. JPMorgan stated in the risk disclosure:

“If the final price of IBIT at maturity is below our set 'barrier price' (i.e., below 70% of the initial price), investors will lose 1% of the principal for every 1% drop.”

This means that in the event of an extreme Bear Market, the worst-case scenario could lead to a total loss of principal.

Why are Wall Street institutions promoting these types of products?

The timing of JPMorgan's product launch is intriguing, coinciding with an increasing number of large institutions on Wall Street attempting to participate in the encryption market in a way that emphasizes “controllable risks and clear logic.” Compared to directly buying coins or engaging in fluctuation trading, structured notes allow asset managers to make “conditional bets” to seize the opportunity when the market turns.

In addition, following the approval of the Bitcoin ETF by the U.S. SEC, the market has seen a surge in demand for legal, transparent, and regulated encryption financial products. Structured notes have become the latest component of this new trend, marking an increasing convergence between traditional finance and digital assets.

This article JPMorgan launches Bitcoin structured notes: combining a four-year cycle, betting on the bull run in 2028, first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.