Liquidity expert Michael Howell: "Bitcoin and gold" are the top choices for long-term inflation hedging assets.

Liquidity guru Michael Howell warns that the $38 trillion debt could trigger a liquidity contraction in 2026, and with long-term inflation, gold and Bitcoin are core choices for safe-haven assets. (Background: Gold master Peter Schiff criticizes MicroStrategy's fraud: Michael Saylor's Bitcoin strategy cannot be profitable at all) (Supplementary background: Can M2 and the dollar index really predict Bitcoin? The reality is more complex than you think) The indices on Wall Street screens are still shining, and beneath this apparent prosperity, CrossBorder Capital founder and “global liquidity expert” Michael Howell mentioned in his latest dialogue that facing the staggering $38 trillion in U.S. national debt, along with the refinancing cliff approaching in 2026, investors' long-term safe-haven assets might only be gold and Bitcoin. LIVE NOW – The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks Global liquidity veteran Michael Howell (@crossbordercap) joins to map out the “master variable” driving asset price: A 65-month global liquidity and debt refinancing cycle that underpins booms, busts,… pic.twitter.com/Ryl3fqHoYR — Bankless (@Bankless) November 24, 2025 Liquidity levels will plunge sharply in 2026 Michael Howell compares the global financial system to a pool, where the water represents liquidity and the pipelines are refinancing. Global debt has accumulated to $350 trillion, requiring approximately $70 trillion in new funds each year to replace old debts with new ones, maintaining the water level from drying up. According to Michael Howell's analysis, by the end of 2025, we will be at the peak of the liquidity cycle, and entering 2026, the amount of liquidity injected by central banks will shift to a net contraction, with the pipelines narrowed while needing to feed a larger debt shark. The Treasury's past large issuance of short-term treasury bills to provide market support has been termed by Michael Howell as “fiscal quantitative easing”, but short-term debt is merely a stopgap measure. Facing the peak of maturities from 2026 to 2028, the only way out is to restart the printing press. He predicts that the U.S. M2 year-on-year growth rate will reach 7% to 8% in 2026, effectively announcing that inflation will become a long-term norm. Who can outrun the printing press Michael Howell cites data from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office to examine asset performance from 2000 to 2025. Over the past 25 years, U.S. federal debt has inflated 10 times, the S&P 500 has risen less than 5 times, while gold has surged 12 times. The results indicate that the nominal gains in the stock market have been diluted by debt, with only “hard assets” successfully maintaining purchasing power. He further predicts that if long-term structural inflation continues, gold could challenge $10,000 per ounce by the mid-2030s. Bitcoin: A new safe-haven asset in the long inflation cycle Michael Howell does not agree with the “Bitcoin four-year cycle” theory, but he pointed out in the interview that Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to changes in liquidity and should be regarded alongside gold as a tool during the long inflation cycle. He reminds investors that during the liquidity pressure test period from the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, market fluctuations could intensify, and leveraged positions need to be managed cautiously, waiting for central banks to be forced to open the floodgates again. The liquidity cycle has already peaked, and from here on, only printing remains. Under the “fiscal-led” framework, Michael Howell proposes three rules: Core holdings should be in gold, Bitcoin, and quality real estate, as these assets can absorb excess liquidity; secondly, stocks should only include companies with pricing power, avoiding companies that cannot pass on costs; thirdly, dynamically manage positions, moderately reduce risk from the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, and wait for another round of liquidity injection. Related reports Observation: Gold and tech stocks have bottom fishers, but only Bitcoin is not rising Bloomberg analysts warn: Bitcoin will fall to $50,000 next year! BTC currently faces three major pitfalls. This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.