Introduction

This report summarizes the Web3 industry policies and macro events that occurred in the past week: On February 10, the U.S. one-year inflation expectations for January remained steady at 3% while the five-year inflation expectations rose from 2.7% to 3%. On February 11, Democratic Congressman Maxine Waters introduced a proposal for stablecoin regulation. On February 12, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3% for the first time since June of last year. Brian Quintenz was nominated by Trump to be the new chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Summary

• February 11 – U.S. one-year inflation expectations for January remained steady at 3%, while five-year inflation expectations rose from 2.7% to 3%. The Federal Reserve may become more cautious about cutting interest rates.
• February 11 – Democratic Congresswoman Maxine Waters introduced a proposal for stablecoin regulation.
• February 12 – The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3% for the first time since June of last year. This increase in CPI is a significant negative signal for the implementation of rate cuts.
• February 12 – Brian Quintenz was nominated by Trump to be the new chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Key Focus Events

February 11 — U.S. One-Year Inflation Expectations Steady at 3%, Five-Year Expectations Rise to 3%*

On February 11, the latest monthly survey results released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicated that due to the upcoming tariff measures announced by the Trump administration, U.S. inflation expectations for the 1-3 year period remained steady at 3%, while the five-year inflation expectations rose from 2.7% to 3%, marking the highest level since May of the previous year. If inflation expectations continue to rise, the Federal Reserve may be more cautious about cutting interest rates. This could lead to tighter global liquidity, a stronger U.S. dollar, and put pressure on emerging markets. The rise in inflation expectations might slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, which could be a negative signal for both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market [1].

February 11 — Democratic Congresswoman Maxine Waters Proposes Stablecoin Regulation

U.S. Democratic Congresswoman Maxine Waters introduced a stablecoin regulation proposal, suggesting that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) jointly oversee stablecoin issuers. The proposal also mandates that all registered issuers must maintain 1:1 reserves. Previously, Republican Congressmen French Hill and Bryan Steil introduced similar bills, but their proposal advocated for the OCC to regulate non-bank stablecoin issuers instead of going through the Federal Reserve’s approval process. These proposals aim to unify and standardize the regulatory framework for stablecoins through multi-agency cooperation and stringent reserve requirements, enhancing market transparency and stability. However, they could also bring regulatory differences and market complexities, requiring a balance between regulation and innovation [2].

February 12 — U.S. CPI Rises to 3% for the First Time Since June Last Year

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) on February 12, showing that consumer prices rose by 0.5% in January compared to December, marking the fastest increase since August 2023. The annual inflation rate for the 12 months leading up to January reached 3%. The rise in CPI could become a negative factor for the market, casting doubt on the potential for future interest rate cuts. The recent positive trend has shifted due to concerns over inflation reversal. As a result, on February 12, U.S. stock markets opened lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by about 395 points, the S&P 500 falling by 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite declining by 1.1% [3].

February 12 — Brian Quintenz Nominated by Trump as the New Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

Brian Quintenz expressed on social media that he was honored to be nominated by Trump as the new chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC plays a crucial role in market price discovery and ensures that the U.S. remains a global leader in blockchain technology and innovation. Quintenz also expressed his excitement to work with President Trump’s outstanding financial regulatory team.
This nomination could bring more clear regulatory policies for the cryptocurrency market, boosting market confidence and fostering industry development. Clear regulation would help stabilize market expectations, attract more capital inflows, promote technological innovation, expand application scenarios, and push the market toward maturity [4].

Conclusion

Several macro events impacted the cryptocurrency market from February 8 to February 14, 2025. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of key developments in the cryptocurrency market and the broader macroeconomy. On February 11, U.S. one-year inflation expectations for January remained steady at 3%, while five-year inflation expectations rose from 2.7% to 3%, making the Federal Reserve more cautious about cutting interest rates. On February 11, Democratic Congresswoman Maxine Waters proposed stablecoin regulation, which aims to enforce multi-agency cooperation and stringent reserve requirements. On February 12, U.S. CPI rose to 3% for the first time since June of last year, which is a negative signal for potential interest rate cuts. Brian Quintenz was nominated by Trump as the new chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Overall, the rise in U.S. inflation expectations has had a multifaceted impact on Federal Reserve policy, global markets, U.S. stock and cryptocurrency markets, as well as emerging markets.


References:

1. Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ny-fed-finds-mostly-stable-inflation-expectations-january-2025-02-10/
2. Theblock,https://www.theblock.co/post/339827/top-democrat-rep-maxine-waters-releases-draft-proposal-to-regulate-stablecoins-punchbowl-news?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
3. CNN,https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/12/business/us-cpi-consumer-inflation-january/index.html
4. X,https://x.com/BrianQuintenz/status/1889702678852211005

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