Gate Research: BTC bottoms out and rebounds | Monad mainnet to launch on November 24

Summary

• BTC’s technical rebound faces resistance; short-term trend remains weak. ETH’s rebound lacks strength, limited by short-term moving averages.
• Balancer releases preliminary report on attack incident; rounding logic error exploited.
• Monad mainnet to go live on November 24; MON token claiming window has closed.
• BTC spot ETF sees positive fund inflow; market sentiment experiences short-term recovery.
• Total crypto spot market capitalization rises to $3.45 trillion; market sentiment stabilizes briefly.

Market Overview

Market Commentary

• BTC – Over the past week, BTC experienced an oversold rebound after consecutive declines. The price touched a phase low of $98,500 on November 4 and rebounded to around $103,000, but the overall trend remains within a downward channel. Short-term averages remain in bearish alignment, and the rebound failed to effectively break through the MA5 resistance, showing that upward momentum remains insufficient. Trading volume expanded slightly during the rebound phase but lacked sustainability, indicating weak capital inflow willingness. The MACD lines remain below the zero axis; although the green bars are narrowing, showing weakening bearish momentum, no golden cross signal has yet formed. Overall, BTC is currently in a short-term correction phase; unless it breaks through the $105,000–$107,000 range with expanded volume, the rebound is unlikely to turn into a trend reversal. Downside support remains at $100,000 and the previous low range of $98,951.
• ETH – ETH also showed a “bottoming and rebound” pattern in the past week. The price dropped to around $3,056 in early November and quickly rebounded to about $3,400, showing short-term signs of stabilization. However, from a technical structure perspective, ETH remains suppressed by short-term moving averages. MA5 and MA10 continue to decline and diverge bearishly, indicating that the rebound is corrective rather than a trend reversal. Although trading volume briefly increased, it did not show significant follow-through, and buying momentum remains weak. In terms of MACD, the lines remain below the zero axis; green bars are shortening but have not turned red, showing that bearish momentum is slowing but not yet shifting bullish. Overall, if ETH fails to effectively break through the $3,500–$3,700 range and stabilize above MA10, it still faces the risk of retesting the $3,200–$3,050 support. The short-term trend is likely to remain volatile, and market sentiment remains cautious.
• Altcoins – The crypto market overall showed a bottoming rebound pattern this week, with BTC and ETH leading the recovery. Funds flowed back into sectors such as privacy and infrastructure.
• Stablecoins –The total stablecoin market capitalization stands at $313.8 billion, down slightly by 0.35% from the previous day. Overall trading volume fell to around $179.3 billion, a drop of about 38.6%, indicating a short-term slowdown in market liquidity.
• Gas Fees – Ethereum network gas fees declined. As of November 6, the daily average gas fee was 0.315 Gwei.

Trending Tokens

According to CoinGecko data, privacy and infrastructure sectors both showed significant increases this week, with 7-day gains of 74.8% and 39.4%, respectively. Below are representative hot tokens in each sector and analyses of their growth drivers.

RAIL – Railgun (+30.6%, Circulating Market Cap $221M)

According to CoinGecko data, the RAIL token is currently priced at $3.86, up 30.6% within 24 hours. RAILGUN is a privacy-focused DeFi protocol providing a “complete privacy layer” for on-chain transactions, supporting anonymous execution of token transfers, DEX trades, vault deposits, and liquidity provision. The project uses zero-knowledge proofs to enable a “private transaction pool,” allowing users to maintain self-custody while engaging in decentralized interactions.

The recent surge in RAILGUN may be driven by two key factors: first, record-breaking private transaction volume on the protocol, drawing attention to protocol revenue and token utility; second, the team announced the “Mech Accounts” plan, expanding RAILGUN’s privacy coverage to include more on-chain actions (such as DEX interactions and staking) under private conditions. As on-chain fund flow and privacy computation needs grow, RAILGUN is increasingly seen as core infrastructure in the privacy DeFi sector, with market consensus expecting continued token value potential.

DCR – Decred (+19.89%, Circulating Market Cap $713M)

According to Gate data, DCR is currently priced at $42.098, up 19.89% within 24 hours. Decred is a decentralized blockchain project focused on on-chain governance and privacy protection, aiming to achieve an “autonomous network without centralized authority.” The project adopts a hybrid consensus mechanism (PoW + PoS) with voting governance and treasury systems, allowing token holders to participate directly in protocol upgrades, fund allocations, and parameter adjustments.

The recent strong rebound in DCR may be due to multiple favorable developments: first, the team emphasized that Decred has completed a full governance and privacy mechanism loop, validating the feasibility of decentralized governance; second, community discussions position DCR as a “BTC alternative asset,” maintaining a 21 million supply cap while supporting flexible upgrades and long-term evolution through its governance and treasury systems; third, Decred announced it will expand governance to include more on-chain actions such as staking and private transactions. As market attention returns to the narratives of “governance blockchains” and “on-chain autonomy,” DCR stands out as a representative project in both privacy and governance themes.

ZK – zkSync (+11.62%, Circulating Market Cap $510M)

According to Gate data, ZK token is now at $0.06991, up 11.62% within 24 hours. zkSync is a leading ZK Rollup scaling solution in the Ethereum ecosystem, dedicated to building “Incorruptible Financial Infrastructure.” The project uses zero-knowledge proofs to achieve high throughput and low-cost transaction validation and is upgrading from a single-chain structure to a multi-layer network supporting interoperability between public and enterprise chains. The recent rise in ZK token is mainly due to several positive developments: first, zkSync released the proposal From Governance to Utility, clarifying that ZK will be used for protocol fees and ecosystem incentives; second, ecosystem partner Memento announced completion of its third RWA fund tokenized on ZK chain, marking institutional financial assets entering on-chain scale adoption; third, zkSync highlighted institutional DeFi adoption at Chainlink SmartCon and unveiled its new technology “Atlas,” achieving 15,000 TPS and 1-second finality, significantly improving cross-chain performance. Driven by these updates, ZK’s on-chain fees increased by nearly 694% over the past 7 days, making it one of the strongest Layer2 chains recently.

Focus of the Week

Vanish launches public test version, introducing new privacy trading and passive income modules to Solana ecosystem

Solana privacy trading project Vanish announced the public launch of its test version, allowing users to perform instant private trading of any Solana ecosystem token. This reduces risks of transaction tracking, copying, or MEV front-running. Users holding SOL or other tokens in Vanish can privately store funds while earning “Silent Rewards” from platform fee sharing—integrating privacy protection and yield generation. This offers appeal for users seeking both fund privacy and asset utilization. On the capital and ecosystem side, Vanish completed a $1M seed round in August, led by Colosseum with participation from Solana Ventures, Pivot Global, and Solana co-founder toly. This backing gives Vanish solid ecosystem support in both technology and liquidity. If the project continues to improve performance and asset coverage under regulatory frameworks, it may attract more high-frequency traders, market makers, and high-net-worth users seeking privacy, further strengthening Solana’s “high-performance + privacy protection” narrative.

Balancer releases preliminary attack report: rounding logic error exploited

In its preliminary report, Balancer disclosed that its V2 Composable Stable Pools suffered multi-chain attacks on November 4, affecting Ethereum, Base, Avalanche, Polygon, and Arbitrum networks. The vulnerability originated from a rounding logic error in the scaling function of batch swap transactions (EXACT_OUT path)—when the scaling factor included non-integer values (such as exchange rates), the system rounded down, allowing attackers to exploit precision errors to manipulate pool balances and withdraw funds. Only Balancer V2 Composable Stable Pools were affected; Balancer V3 and other pool types were not impacted.

After the incident, Balancer, together with security partners and the white-hat community, activated emergency responses including Hypernative’s auto-pause mechanism, asset freezing, and white-hat interventions under the SEAL framework—successfully containing further damage and recovering part of the assets. StakeWise retrieved about 73.5% of stolen osETH, while BitFinding and Base MEV bot teams also assisted in recovery. Balancer is now collaborating with SEAL and zeroShadow for cross-chain tracing and recovery, with a full technical postmortem to follow. This incident highlights security risks in batch swaps and precision control logic, as well as the importance of multi-party coordination in decentralized protocol defense.

Monad mainnet to launch on November 24, MON token claiming window closed

The Monad team plans to officially launch its new Layer1 blockchain mainnet and native token MON on November 24. Before launch, the Monad Foundation opened a token claiming portal from mid-October to November 3, allowing eligible users to view allocations and connect wallets. Reports indicate that the claiming portal briefly caused wallet service slowdowns due to heavy traffic, reflecting high market attention to the project and airdrop. The full tokenomics and allocation details remain undisclosed, with MON’s unlocking schedule and long-term incentive mechanisms being key future observations.

In terms of ecosystem layout, Monad plans to integrate leading decentralized applications such as Uniswap, Magic Eden, and OpenSea upon launch, and support mainstream wallets including Backpack, MetaMask, and Rabby to reduce user and developer migration barriers. Positioned as “Ethereum-compatible, Solana-performance,” Monad aims to capture opportunities at the intersection of DeFi, NFTs, and new Layer1 narratives. However, before detailed tokenomics and incentive mechanisms are released, whether Monad can differentiate itself among many EVM-compatible chains and attract sustainable liquidity and developer retention depends on its actual mainnet performance and ecosystem support.

Key Market Data Highlights

BTC spot ETF turns positive, market sentiment briefly recovers

On November 5, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw notable fund inflows, with a single-day net inflow of about $239M, reversing three consecutive days of outflows. Between October 31 and November 4, cumulative net outflows exceeded $900M, the largest continuous outflow in nearly two months—reflecting risk aversion amid sharp price drops and macro uncertainty.

This inflow was driven mainly by major ETFs, with some seeing significant fund rebounds and active institutional buying. Analysts believe the inflows are likely due to investors allocating at lower levels after short-term volatility. Meanwhile, BTC, after falling below key technical supports (such as the 200-day MA), showed stabilization on November 5, slightly improving overall sentiment. Although inflows are not yet enough to offset earlier outflows, the rebound indicates a short-term sentiment recovery. If macro policy expectations stabilize and USD liquidity pressure eases, BTC spot ETFs may continue to attract incremental capital, supporting year-end momentum.

Altcoin Season Index drops to 24, market risk appetite cools

Since October 31, the altcoin market has weakened, with the Altcoin Season Index dropping to 24, indicating a shift from “Bitcoin season” to a defensive phase. Altcoin market capitalization remains sluggish, reflecting investor risk aversion amid volatility and macro uncertainty.

Among the top 100 altcoins, only a few maintained positive returns, including ASTER (+1,190.6%), ZEC (+1,163.9%), and Mina (+441.6%), while most major assets either saw limited gains or corrections. The index shows a sharp decline in altcoin performance since late October, with liquidity concentrating toward BTC. Analysts believe risk appetite will remain constrained in the short term, with investors preferring to stay on the sidelines or move into high-liquidity assets.

Total crypto spot market cap rises to $3.45 trillion, sentiment stabilizes briefly

This week, total global crypto market capitalization rose to $3.45 trillion, up 2.17% from the previous day, ending the downtrend since late October. After several days of selling pressure, the market showed signs of recovery, with major coins leading the rebound and driving capital inflows.

Despite the earlier decline, spot trading activity has increased notably. The 7-day average daily trading volume remained around $170B, briefly hitting a phase high on November 4, suggesting bottom-fishing and short-term trading funds are re-entering. On major platforms, institutional trading accounts for over 70% of total volume, with liquidity concentrated in top-tier exchanges. Meanwhile, decentralized matching and AMM protocols maintained stable market share, showing a balanced liquidity distribution between centralized and decentralized ecosystems.

Funding Weekly Recap

According to RootData, between October 31 and November 6, 2025, 15 crypto-related projects announced financing or mergers, spanning public chains, investment platforms, and consumer sectors. Overall fundraising activity remains high, showing continued capital deployment into public chains, DeFi, and asset tokenization. Below are the top three projects by funding scale:

Tharimmune

Announced $540M in financing on November 4, aimed at supplementing liquidity, supporting operations, and advancing clinical research of candidate drugs.

Tharimmune is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on immunology, inflammation, and oncology therapeutics. The funds will support drug development targeting immune regulatory mechanisms to provide more effective and safer treatments for chronic disease and cancer patients.

Ripple

Announced $500M financing on November 5 to expand its institutional crypto-asset service system, including stablecoin, custody, brokerage, and enterprise treasury management.

Ripple, a US-based blockchain fintech company, builds a global payment and settlement network based on distributed ledger technology. Its system enables instant cross-border settlements between fiat and crypto assets, offering secure, efficient, low-cost fund transfers for banks and financial institutions. After this round, Ripple’s valuation reached about $40B. The company plans to deepen cooperation with traditional financial institutions and acquire related infrastructure firms to strengthen its global presence in cross-border payments and crypto financial services.

Lava

Announced $200M financing on November 4 to further develop its Bitcoin self-custody loan products, global payment channels, and instant Bitcoin purchase services.

Lava is a fintech company offering Bitcoin-collateralized loans, global remittances, and instant BTC purchase tools. It reduces traditional risks in Bitcoin-collateralized lending—custody, origination, repayment, and collateral management—through cryptographic verification, ensuring on-chain transparency and high automation for safe, efficient lending processes.

Next Week to Watch

Token Unlocks

According to Tokenomist data, the following major token unlocks will occur in the next 7 days (Nov 7–Nov 13, 2025):

• LINEA will unlock tokens worth about $35.16M in the next 7 days, accounting for 18.0% of circulating supply.
• APT will unlock tokens worth about $29.86M in the next 7 days, accounting for 1.5% of circulating supply.
• AVAX will unlock tokens worth about $27.59M in the next 7 days, accounting for 0.4% of circulating supply.

References:

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Coinmarketcap, https://coinmarketcap.com/
• jin10, https://rili.jin10.com/
• Coinmarketcap, https://coinmarketcap.com/view/stablecoin/
• etherscan, https://etherscan.io/gastracker
• Coingecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories
• X, https://x.com/vanishTrade/status/1985799479233073330
• X, https://x.com/Balancer/status/1986104426667401241
• X, https://x.com/monad/status/1986087005386842568
• Rootdata, https://www.rootdata.com/Fundraising
• Tokenomist, https://tokenomist.ai/

Gate Research is a comprehensive blockchain and cryptocurrency research platform that provides deep content for readers, including technical analysis, market insights, industry research, trend forecasting, and macroeconomic policy analysis.

Disclaimer
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