Is Bitcoin Going To Crash? BTC 2025 Price Prediction

Entering June 2025, the Bitcoin market is pulling the nerves of global investors amid violent fluctuations. This month Bitcoin price At one point, it fell over 7%, and the Fear & Greed index plummeted from 49 to 43, spreading panic in the market. Currently, BTC is fluctuating around $100,000, while Ethereum has fallen below the $2,200 mark, dragging down the altcoin market. Faced with intense battles between bulls and bears, investors are eager to know: will Bitcoin continue its big dump, or will it gather strength to hit new highs?

Bearish Signal: Market Alerts Under Multiple Risks

The current market is facing three aspects of pressure, which constitute significant bearish factors:

1. Technical indicators deteriorate: BTC and the COIN50 index have both fallen below the 200-day moving average, and the breach of this key trend line usually indicates a long-term weakness. More worryingly, despite prices reaching a local high in June, the RSI indicator has shown a bearish divergence, and buying momentum has significantly weakened—this signal was seen before the big dump in 2022.
2. Leverage bubble and macro pressure: the market leverage ratio is close to the peak level of the 2021 bull market, with recent long positions exceeding $250 million being liquidated amidst severe volatility. Coupled with the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and geopolitical conflicts, risk assets are under significant pressure.
3. Regulatory and selling pressure risks: Although Trump’s election briefly boosted the market, the pace of policy implementation fell short of expectations, weakening investor confidence. The U.S. Department of Justice plans to sell 70,000 seized BTC (approximately $6.5 billion), which could trigger market panic if carried out.

Bullish Momentum: Support from Institutional Entry and Cyclical Patterns

Optimistic factors cannot be ignored and may even dominate the market in the second half of the year:

• Institutional capital continues to flow in: BlackRock increased its holdings for 6 consecutive days in June, accumulating a purchase of 1.4 billion USD in Bitcoin, with its total crypto holdings value surpassing 70 billion USD. Furthermore, the current total assets under management of spot Bitcoin ETFs reach 111.858 billion USD, accounting for 5.89% of BTC’s total market value, providing a solid foundation for the market.
• Historical cycles point to higher targets: Based on AVIV ratios and power law models, the current indicators are far below historical peak levels, suggesting that the top of this cycle could reach 330,000 USD. None of the 30 bull-bear indicators from the independent research institution CoinGlass have issued a signal of reaching the peak, supporting the judgment for continued upward movement.
• Policy and technological innovation empowerment: Texas has passed a bill to protect Bitcoin reserves, establishing its long-term financial position; Solana’s first Layer 2 network Solaxy raised over $56 million in just 36 hours, and upgrades such as the Hooks mechanism of Uniswap V4 will also enhance on-chain efficiency.

2025 Price Prediction: Consensus Amidst Divergence

Analysts show significant divergence in their predictions for year-end targets, but there is a general consensus on a “first suppress then rise” trajectory:

• Cautious faction: CryptoCapo warns of a potential pullback to $60,000 – $65,000 (2021 key support zone);
• Neutral: Changelly expects the range to fall between 79,458 – 126,840 USD, with a peak in August or present.
• Optimists: The BitcoinWisdom model predicts $175,035 – $218,794, while CryptoQuant is optimistic about reaching $135,000 in August based on on-chain data.

Key Variables: Decisive Factors in Direction

Three major factors will dominate the market trend in the second half of the year:

1. Macroeconomic Policy: Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and effectiveness of inflation control;
2. Regulatory progress: The speed of U.S. cryptocurrency legislation and the implementation of policies promised by Trump;
3. Technical breakthrough: Layer 2 scaling (such as Solana L2), can AI agents and DePIN enhance on-chain practical value.

Extreme risks also require vigilance: ChatGPT simulations show that if a regional nuclear war breaks out, BTC could fall by 60%-80%—despite the probability of this scenario being only 18%.

Conclusion: Strategic Layout is Better than Short-term Speculation

Considering various signals, Bitcoin is expected to complete its bottom formation between the end of Q2 and the beginning of Q3 in 2025, with the second half of the year possibly entering a recovery channel. Short-term volatility may continue, and $93,000 is a key support level; breaching this level could deepen the correction. However, supported by the influx of funds into spot ETFs, institutional allocation demand, and the halving cycle pattern, below $100,000 is regarded as a long-term value range.