Placeholder partners: bull characteristics have emerged, planning to get on board when BTC falls back to 75,000 USD or lower.

On November 14, Chris Burniske, former head of crypto at Ark Invest and current partner at Placeholder VC, recently stated in a post that although this crypto cycle is disappointing, core assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) remain at historically high levels. Investors should be wary of short-term pullback risks while maintaining long-term allocations. Burniske pointed out that the big dump on October 11 has caused a lasting impact on the market, making it difficult to quickly form sustained buying pressure. The monthly charts of BTC and ETH show signs of cracks but still remain in the “top range.” Meanwhile, the decline in MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock price and frequent warning signals in the gold and credit markets indicate that broader asset adjustments are imminent. “This bull run is different, and the next bear market will also be different,” Burniske wrote. He has adjusted his position accordingly and plans to get on board again when BTC falls to $75,000 or lower, but emphasized that this is “definitely not an all-in or close all positions” gradual strategy. In his portfolio disclosure, Burniske revealed that about 39% of his personal holdings are in “free cash” (money market funds) and 61% in long-term capital, including non-crypto assets. This reflects his belief in the nature of capitalism: “Capitalism aims to grow capital, so it is always wise to maintain allocations.” He warned that private market valuations are approaching cycle tops, and if BTC continues to decline, no crypto asset can stay unaffected. He also cited historical lessons, such as how gold surged before the crashes in 2000 and 2008, reminding investors to avoid blindly chasing “escape pods” when all assets are overvalued. Looking ahead, Burniske is cautiously optimistic about the return of liquidity, believing it will arrive late and be less stimulative than in 2021, potentially prompting a shift towards “four-year fundamentalism.” He observed that characteristics of a bull market peak are already apparent: favourable information (such as developments related to Robinhood) no longer triggers rebounds, while the bottom of a bear market requires bad news to fail. He calls for investors to be patient and resilient, especially in the AI and crypto sectors.