Pi Coin November's three major selling pressures: 4.85 million PI unlocked daily, exchange balances hitting new highs, and trading volume shrinking

On-chain data and exchange indicators for November show that Pi Network (Pi Coin) is facing triple selling pressure: daily unlocks of 4.85 million PI, exchange balances reaching a record high of 426 million coins, and monthly trading volume shrinking to $1.2 billion. Although the Pi Network community believes that the current $0.20 range is a bottom-fishing opportunity, the unlock peaks will continue until 2027, and the weak fundamentals may prolong the bear market trend. Analysts point out that in a low-liquidity environment, the continuous release of unlocked tokens may create a downward price spiral.

Token Unlock Pressure Analysis: 145 Million Pi Coins Enter the Market Monthly

Data from Piscan shows that in November, the daily unlock volume of Pi Network reached 4.85 million Pi Coins, with a total unlock of approximately 145 million coins for the month. More critically, December’s unlock volume is expected to jump to 173 million coins, the highest monthly figure before September 2027. Pi Network’s economic model requires pioneer users to mine tokens via mobile devices, with a linear unlock period of 5 years after mainnet launch. Currently, the circulating supply is about 3 billion coins, only 3.75% of the maximum supply of 80 billion coins. This ongoing release mechanism can easily create a “sell-off - decline” negative feedback loop in a bear market, especially when market buy depth is insufficient.

Increase in Pi Coin Exchange Balances and Changes in Holding Behavior

The official Pi Network monthly report shows that at the beginning of November, exchange balances were 423 million Pi Coins, which grew to 426 million by mid-month, setting a record high. Exchange balances typically reflect sellers’ willingness to sell, as users transfer tokens to exchanges mainly for trading or cashing out. Notably, the depth of Pi Coin trading pairs on major centralized exchanges (CEX) continues to deteriorate, with the bid-ask spread widening to 0.5%. Additionally, the proportion of addresses holding Pi Coin for over a year has decreased to 61%, down 7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating shaken confidence among long-term holders.

Key On-Chain Indicators for Pi Network

• Daily unlock volume: 4.85 million Pi Coins
• Estimated total unlock in November: 145 million Pi Coins
• Exchange balance: 426 million Pi Coins (all-time high)
• 24-hour trading volume: $30 million
• Monthly trading volume: $1.2 billion (October data)

Shrinking Trading Volume and Liquidity Crisis

Pi Network’s 24-hour trading volume on major CEXs hovers around $30 million, down 96% from the September peak of $830 million. CoinMarketCap data shows that October’s total trading volume was only $1.2 billion, the lowest level in 2024. The low liquidity environment makes large sell orders more likely to impact the market price: for example, on November 7, a sell order of 500,000 Pi Coins caused an instant 4% price drop. The situation on decentralized exchanges (DEX) is even more severe, with the PI/USDT trading pair averaging less than $2 million in daily volume, with slippage often exceeding 10%.

Divergence Between Community Confidence and Fundamentals

Despite the bearish on-chain data, the Pi Network community remains optimistic. User Dao World on X (formerly Twitter), who claims to be a pioneer, states that the actual circulating supply is about 3 billion coins, and the core team has not engaged in large-scale selling. He believes that the current price is manipulated by market makers on major CEXs, and once selling pressure is absorbed, a rebound could occur. Other pioneer users generally see $0.20 as a “historical low” and have organized “staking challenges” within the community to slow down circulation growth. However, third-party developer data shows that monthly active users of Pi Network’s DApps have declined for three consecutive months, and mainnet trading volume has decreased by 22% month-over-month.

Conclusion

The triple pressures faced by Pi Network reflect a classic dilemma in token economics for decentralized projects: a mismatch between unlock mechanisms and market absorption capacity. While community faith can buffer short-term volatility, without improving network utility and liquidity, price recovery lacks a solid foundation. Investors should closely monitor the development of the mainnet ecosystem and the core team’s holdings, as these are key variables to breaking the bear market cycle.